Bitcoin’s value has declined below its previous low in April 2025, sparking new fears in the cryptocurrency market. The rapid recent decline has led investors to focus on when the bear market might end. Analysts point out that the current downturn has occurred more quickly than previous cycles, suggesting that the bottom may form sooner than expected. However, some experts argue that the market hasn’t fully stabilized and risks of further sell-offs still exist.
Acceleration in Bitcoin Cycles and Early Bottom Predictions
In past years, bear periods in the Bitcoin market typically lasted around 12 months, but the current cycle appears to be progressing faster. Following an earlier-than-expected peak in October, a sharp pullback ensued, leading to significant value loss in a short time. Experts believe this acceleration increases the likelihood that the bottom could emerge between June and August.
The growing presence of institutional investors has made market dynamics more complex compared to previous periods. The diminishing influence of long-term investors and miners on prices is causing Bitcoin to behave more like traditional risk assets. This trend is aligning price movements more closely with indices like the S&P 500.
Some analysts assert that the current decline equals roughly one-third of a typical bear market duration, indicating the process is yet to reach its midpoint. Consequently, the ongoing uncertainty coupled with a flat and weak trend could continue to pressure investor sentiment.
Support Levels, Expert Opinions, and Potential Scenarios
Experienced trader Peter Brandt noted that Bitcoin has dropped below a long-term support level on the weekly chart. Historically, breaking the 100-week moving average has often caused a rapid drop towards the 200-week average. Analyzing the periods of 2014, 2018, and 2022 shows that short-term recoveries were limited.
Historical data indicates that Bitcoin attracts strong buying interest after losing 40% to 60% of its peak value. While a severe 70% drop seems unlikely in the current cycle, analysts think the final bottom is 20% to 30% away. The $65,000 level is highlighted as a fear-concentrated area, and a potential drop to $55,000 could trigger panic selling.
Galaxy Digital CEO Mike Novogratz believes that recent declines are due more to profit-taking than fundamental indicator deterioration. After surpassing $100,000, Bitcoin’s approach to $130,000 prompted early investors to realize gains. Novogratz suggests prices are seeking balance between $70,000 and $100,000, with levels around $76,000 indicating significant leverage position clearance.
The macroeconomic outlook, interest rate expectations, and progress in cryptocurrency regulations also play crucial roles in influencing prices. Additionally, the usage of stablecoins and growth in blockchain infrastructure demonstrate ongoing adoption, supporting long-term expectations.
