We are witnessing another challenging day for cryptocurrency investors as the decline deepens following the U.S. market opening. Today is particularly significant due to critical events unfolding. After monitoring Trump’s statements, the release of the recent Fed minutes has added further complexity. The highly anticipated Nvidia earnings report is expected at 00:20, potentially leading to over $1 billion in liquidations within the next 24 hours, adding to the $540 million already liquidated.
Breaking News: Fed Minutes Released
The Fed minutes were just released, preceded by developments that triggered further declines in the crypto markets. Our Telegram channel earlier shared the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) announcement that reduced expectations of a December rate cut. This triggered the decline in cryptocurrencies. What was the announcement? The BLS informed about the cancellation of the October employment report due to the government shutdown, the first such occurrence since 2013.
Available now is only the September employment report, compiled with difficulty due to the shutdown, rendering it less reliable. Why did cryptocurrencies fall? Without a current employment report, the Fed will need to make its second “blind drive” since October. Powell mentioned the need to maintain rates if forced into a blind drive. Thus, unless the September employment report falls significantly short of expectations when released Thursday at 16:30, the December rate decision will likely hold rates steady, as no significant reports influencing rate decisions are expected before the December 10th Fed meeting. Although Quantitative Tightening ends in December, another rate cut pause is anticipated.
According to Polymarket, the cancellation of October’s employment report by the U.S. Department of Labor has increased the chances of the Fed not cutting rates in December to 68%. FedWatch indicates only a 33% chance of a rate reduction.
Diving into the Fed Minutes
Now, let’s delve into the details of the Fed minutes. Key points include:
- Several participants supported an October rate cut, while others preferred no change.
- Most agreed on ending the balance sheet reduction program by December 1st.
- A few indicated a December rate cut might be appropriate.
- Concerns were highlighted regarding a potential stock market drop, especially if AI-related expectations are abruptly reevaluated.
- Most favored aligning the Fed portfolio with the current composition of Treasury securities.
- Some participants advocated for a larger share of T-bills for increased flexibility.
- Many indicated a December rate cut would be inappropriate.
- The economic outlook by Fed staff foresaw slightly stronger real GDP growth compared to September projections through 2028.
- Many believed maintaining rates for the rest of the year was suitable.
The importance of news flow is evident. Today, we tracked Bitcoin 
$76,429‘s current and potential movements step by step. Staying updated with rapid news flow helps understand market dynamics. The news section of the CryptoAppsy app (available for iOS and Android) can ease your job. Continue following COINTURK for updates.
