A recent CryptoQuant report finds that Bitcoin’s current price action and on-chain indicators closely mirror dynamics observed in previous four-year cycles. This cyclical rhythm, which has now become a hallmark of the world’s leading cryptocurrency, is being thoroughly revisited following the latest halving event as market participants search for directional clues embedded in technical data and trading behavior.
Post-Halving Rally Signals Bullish Momentum
As seen in past cycles, Bitcoin rocketed into a powerful rally after its most recent halving. The price surging above the halving-anchored VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price) confirmed robust buying demand. Weekly closes held near the upper AVWAP band, an area historically linked to excessive optimism and potential market toppiness. Technical strength was further underscored by the rising and supportive stance of the Weekly SMA50—a sign that bullish sentiment had taken center stage in the ongoing trend.
Momentum Falters During Cycle Maturity
Yet as the cycle matured, early signs of weakness began to emerge. Bitcoin’s price slipped below the weekly SMA50, hinting at a shift in momentum. Rather than marking fresh all-time highs, prices set lower peaks compared to previous highs. The VWAP fixed at the cycle’s prior top began acting as resistance, while the post-halving AVWAP’s support role weakened. These developments suggested that the market was transitioning from an expansionary but vulnerable phase to one characterized by distribution and fragility.
On-Chain Signals Reveal Emerging Weakness
Following the steep downturn in 2022, core on-chain metrics declined in tandem with market prices. Supply held at a loss ballooned, while the Net Unrealized Profit and Loss (NUPL) indicator edged toward neutral and negative territory. Realized losses spiked dramatically, large new buyers faced mounting pressure, and miner profitability waned. CryptoQuant’s analysis notes that during the present 2026 drawdown, similar trends are playing out. Approximately 9.5 million BTC are now held at a loss, echoing patterns from previous cycles. The NUPL indicator has cooled to around +0.11, realized losses have approached $6 billion, and new large holders have, for the first time, become unprofitable. While veteran holders remain in profit, they too are feeling the squeeze, and short-term participants have begun to exit as their NUPL readings dip into negative territory.
In both cycles, price deterioration was accompanied by simultaneous breakdowns across key on-chain indicators. The report concludes that such synchronicity is not coincidental, instead interpreting it as a clear signal of structural stress playing out across the Bitcoin ecosystem.
Parallel Four-Year Cycles Point to Enduring Patterns
The data suggest that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is following a trajectory remarkably similar to past timeframes. Both the synchrony between price movement and on-chain signals, as well as the recurrence of corrective phases, reinforce the notion that these are not signs of a new, unprecedented market structure. If anything, Bitcoin appears to remain firmly aligned with its established cyclical behavior.
Current Stage Reflects Ongoing Correction Phase
Present conditions bear an uncanny resemblance to the correction phase seen during the 2020–2022 cycle. The simultaneous weakening in price and investor sentiment points to a structural reset, rather than isolated volatility. As observed in the latest figures compiled by CryptoQuant, the defining four-year rhythm continues unbroken. Whether Bitcoin tumbles further or begins to carve out a new price floor remains to be seen, hinging on how price action and on-chain benchmarks evolve in the coming months.
