Bitcoin fell sharply to $79,800 on Thursday after failing to break through a major resistance level. Despite this pullback, inflows to spot Bitcoin ETFs surged and topped $1 billion for the first time since January. Technical indicators now suggest the recent decline could be short-lived.
Technical signals and price movements
The latest drop coincided with a negative divergence in the relative strength index (RSI) observed on the one- and four-hour charts. As Bitcoin flirted with new highs, the weakening RSI signaled fading buying appetite and increased caution among traders.
In the short term, the $78,500 level stands out as a key weekly opening benchmark. If Bitcoin maintains above this threshold, analysts suggest the downside may remain limited. Otherwise, the $76,000 to $78,000 range acts as a notable support zone, including both the daily fair value gap and the 200-day exponential moving average.
Market watchers believe that even if Bitcoin slips to this support band, it could quickly recover and retest its recent high of $82,800. Volatile price swings in low-volume areas often revive liquidity and lead to renewed upside moves.
Analyst views and market expectations
Jelle, a well-known analyst in the crypto market, noted that 200-day averages have now switched from support to resistance, putting $78,000 as the first major floor to watch. Jelle added that any retest of these levels could set the stage for fresh price targets. Another analyst, Killa XBT, pointed out that persistent selling could shift the next support down to the $76,300–$74,700 range. Buyers are still defending the weekly opening level, keeping uncertainty alive.
Jelle highlighted, “The 200-day moving averages are currently acting as resistance, while $78,000 is being monitored as the first key support area.”
These technical discussions point to different scenarios for Bitcoin’s near-term trajectory. Analysts generally agree that investors should track major support and resistance levels closely amid ongoing volatility.
Spot ETF inflows and risk index data
Demand for spot Bitcoin ETFs climbed significantly this week. Net inflows reached a weekly record of $1.05 billion—an annual high. If Friday’s trading session also ends positive, it will mark the strongest week for ETF inflows in the past four months.
Meanwhile, Swissblock reported that its proprietary Bitcoin Risk Index dropped near zero, marking a low-risk environment for traders. Around 3,000 BTC in net inflows were also observed in ETFs, signaling a positive turn. Historically, elevated risk readings correlate with higher selling pressure, while low risk encourages accumulation among investors.
With risk back down, Bitcoin often finds renewed buying interest close to major support levels. This tends to support recovery in price action and helps restore short-term confidence in the broader market.
