Following U.S. Vice President JD Vance’s announcement that peace talks between Iran and Pakistan had failed, heightened geopolitical risks have pushed cryptocurrencies back into the spotlight. However, Bitcoin’s price movements continue to be shaped primarily by direct market flows and robust new purchases.
Positive momentum remains in the market
Market sentiment for Bitcoin remains broadly bullish. MicroStrategy, led by Michael Saylor, made a substantial Bitcoin purchase last week worth $330 million, bringing its total holdings to 766,970 BTC. It’s estimated the company added roughly 8,000 more Bitcoins to its portfolio over the course of the week.
Institutional interest is also reflected in the increased activity of U.S.-based spot Bitcoin ETFs. According to widely tracked industry data, these ETFs recorded $787 million in net inflows this week—the highest weekly figure since the beginning of March. Year-to-date, total inflows have reached approximately $2 billion.
In a market note, 10x Research founder Markus Thielen highlighted that substantial MicroStrategy acquisitions and shrinking ETF supply have helped to contain downside risks. Thielen noted that technical indicators are signaling oversold territory, and with rising momentum among mining companies, his main scenario projects a move to $88,000 for Bitcoin.
Buying pressure builds as regulatory hopes rise
This month, shares of publicly traded U.S. Bitcoin mining firms have risen between 10% and 30%. For comparison, the S&P 500 gained 4%, while artificial intelligence giant Nvidia advanced 6% during the same period.
Thielen pointed out that some mining companies diversifying into AI hosting indicates renewed investor interest in this sector. Strengthening technical data and increased risk appetite are further fueling bullish expectations in the market.
Additional indicators suggest growing appetite for crypto investments. The Coinbase Premium Index—which measures the price difference between U.S.-listed Coinbase and international exchange Binance—spiked to 0.0586%, its highest reading since October. This signals rising buying pressure from U.S. investors.
Matt Mena, Senior Strategist at 21Shares, emphasized that there is a growing possibility the Clarity Act will be enacted later this quarter, providing a significant regulatory framework for crypto. Mena noted that the act could clarify the current power struggle between the Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
The likelihood of the Clarity Act becoming law this year is currently estimated at 65%. The proposal, already passed in the House of Representatives, is now awaiting review in the Senate.
Mena added, “A move back above $73,000 could pave the way for a new test at $75,000. If $80,000 is breached, price acceleration is likely, and $100,000 could still be on the table as a peak target for the quarter.”
On the macroeconomic front, inflation data remains mixed, but the overall trend suggests easing pressures. The Consumer Price Index rose 0.9% monthly, while annual inflation climbed to 3.3%, with a 10% spike in energy prices as a major driver.
Core inflation, which excludes food and energy, increased by 0.2% month-on-month and 2.6% year-on-year, marginally surpassing expectations. Underlying price pressures are still seen as being largely contained.
Should the Federal Reserve overlook temporary energy-driven price jumps and maintain a flexible policy stance, market liquidity could strengthen—benefiting both equities and cryptocurrencies.
Vikram Subburaj, CEO of India-based Giottus exchange, pointed out that Bitcoin supply in the $70,000–$80,000 range is extremely tight. He said just 1% of all circulating Bitcoin is available in this zone, which means resistance levels could be more easily broken.
