Although there has been a renewed inflow of funds into spot Bitcoin ETFs traded in the US in recent days, analysts suggest that institutional demand has yet to show a solid recovery. Recent market data points to a fading of the intense selling pressure, with a notable divergence emerging between spot and derivatives market activity.
Wave of ETF outflows eases
Crypto investment firm Swissblock, in an analysis shared on X, stated that the worst period of the bear-market exodus in Bitcoin ETFs has ended. The company observed a significant slowdown in selling pressure following strong outflows seen in previous weeks. Swissblock, recognized for its data-driven research and market analysis in digital assets, highlighted gradual signs of stabilization within the ETF segment.
Swissblock assessed that while the accumulation now seen in ETFs is encouraging, it does not yet signal robust institutional confidence has returned.
According to data from Farside Investors, US spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded net outflows for 10 consecutive trading sessions starting June 17, amounting to a cumulative $2.7 billion withdrawal. This trend shifted in the subsequent three trading days, as over $500 million in net inflows was registered. However, the market again saw a renewed outflow of $84.9 million on Wednesday.
| Period | Net flow |
|---|---|
| 10 trading days | $2.7 billion outflow |
| Last 3 trading days | Over $500 million inflow |
| Wednesday | $84.9 million outflow |
Swissblock views this shift as a cautious sign of recovery. The firm notes the return of capital flows into ETFs is positive, but stops short of declaring that sustained, strong institutional demand has materialized yet.
Ongoing weakness in the spot market
IT Tech, an analyst for on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, indicated there has been a partial revival in Bitcoin demand, but a distinct divergence has developed between the spot and futures markets. According to the analyst, cumulative 30-day demand was roughly negative 500,000 BTC a week ago, and has now recovered to around negative 75,000 BTC, reflecting a noticeable improvement.
IT Tech points out that the recent rebound has been driven largely by derivatives market participants, as spot buyers remain cautious and on the sidelines.
During the same period, demand in futures markets climbed from negative 295,000 BTC to marginally positive territory, even as spot market demand remained in negative territory. This divergence signals that the recent price reaction is fueled predominantly by leveraged and derivatives-driven trades, rather than direct spot buying interest.
Overall, current data shows that the heavy selling wave linked to ETFs has abated for now. However, the slow return of institutional interest and continued spot-market weakness remain key barriers preventing a broader upward move for Bitcoin.
