On the last trading day of September, U.S.-based spot Bitcoin 
$79,109 ETFs attracted a net inflow of $430 million in a single day. Over the two trading days of the week, the total inflow into these ETFs surpassed $950 million. This strong resurgence in institutional demand stabilized the spot price and pushed Bitcoin above the $116,000 threshold. Following the dip to $108,000 last week, buying volumes intensified. The federal government shutdown reported on October 1st, due to the budget impasse in Washington, also highlighted Bitcoin as a refuge asset amid risk aversion.
ETFs and Safe Haven Perception Strengthen the Market
Inflows into ETFs have reversed the outflow trend observed last week, indicating a renewed appetite among investors. The inability of the U.S. government to approve the funding package, leading to the shutdown, resulted in hundreds of thousands of federal employees being sent on mandatory leave, making markets price in political risk. Unions and policy analysts recalled the 35-day shutdown during the 2018-2019 period, highlighting potential pressure on household budgets. The U.S. government shutdown accelerated a shift towards scarce assets like gold and Bitcoin.
While precious metal prices reached new highs, the dollar weakened. Analyst Ted pointed to the high correlation with gold, noting Bitcoin’s delayed response. He mentioned that new records in gold could form an upward trend in the largest cryptocurrency in the fourth quarter of the year, albeit with a potential for correction amid the generally positive outlook.
Technical Outlook for Bitcoin and Analyst Comments
The reaction from the dip to $108,000 last week, coupled with ETF-induced inflows, alleviated short-term pressure on Bitcoin. While the market remains prone to high volatility, the motivation to avoid risk is expected to strengthen if the government shutdown is prolonged. Observed indicators suggest that the spot side is supported by institutional accumulation.
Experienced cryptocurrency analyst Cas Abbe noted the potential for new peaks in October. Meanwhile, Captain Faibik conveyed that the descending parallel channel, observed since August, might break within the next two months. If confirmed by an increase in volume, such a scenario could make technical record-seeking possible in the last quarter of the year.
