The long-term outlook for Bitcoin 
$76,042 is facing growing pessimism, as indicated by the recent changes in market dynamics. The “skew” indicator for 180-day options on Deribit has fallen to zero, suggesting a lack of directional sentiment in the market. According to Amberdata, this signals a decrease in investor confidence regarding long-term bullish forecasts for Bitcoin.
Shift in Long-Term Expectations
Experts interpret the zeroing of the 180-day options skew as a sign that decision-makers are adopting a neutral stance on Bitcoin’s future. A similar trend was observed at the beginning of the previous bear market. Griffin Ardern, head of options trading and research at BloFin, summarizes the current landscape:
“With the recent market pullback, bullish expectations for Bitcoin’s long-term options have dissipated, and the market has shifted to a neutral position. This suggests that it will be difficult for Bitcoin to establish a prolonged upward trend, reducing the likelihood of reaching new highs in the coming months.”
Ardern also notes that similar conditions were seen in January and February 2022.
Changes in Investor Strategies and Market Dynamics
The imbalance between call and put options in the options market is seen as a significant indicator of market sentiment. A positive skew indicates a bullish outlook, while zero and negative values reveal a cautious or bearish market behavior.
Some institutional investors are selling high-priced call options to hedge risks and generate additional income, which has lowered the relative price of call options. The prevalence of this strategy is believed to contribute to the decrease in bullish expectations for long-term options.
Macroeconomic Uncertainties and Their Effects
Last week, Bitcoin’s price fell by approximately 4% to approach its previous record level. The increase in the core PCE index in the U.S. and the failure of non-farm payrolls data to meet expectations have heightened uncertainties in the economic outlook.
Griffin Ardern remarked that supply chain effects are starting to reflect in the economic data.
“The decline in car prices in the latest CPI report balanced the rise in other goods. However, the influence reaching from the West Coast of the Pacific to the east is becoming noticeable, with retailers beginning to pass on new costs to consumers. While wholesalers and commodity companies try to balance the chain, price increases will be inevitable, albeit more moderate or delayed.”
These developments are cited as reasons for the neutral stance in Bitcoin’s long-term options.
According to a JPMorgan report, the new tariffs proposed by Donald Trump could raise inflation in the U.S. in the second half of the year. The bank’s analysts predict that global core inflation could rise to an annualized rate of 3.4%.
“Most of the inflation rise will be seen in the U.S., with cost pressures focused here.”
The potential increase in inflation could complicate the Federal Reserve’s interest rate cuts. Donald Trump frequently criticizes the current high-interest rates. Market analysts await the ISM services PMI data, providing more detailed insights into price movements in the services sector, along with the July CPI and PPI releases.
