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According to Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, the bullish cycle for Bitcoin (BTC) 
$81,308 has concluded. On-chain data suggest that Bitcoin will either decline or remain flat over the next six to twelve months. Ju notes a reduction in new liquidity and indicates that new whale-level investors are selling their BTC holdings at lower prices.
On-Chain Data Supports Bitcoin’s Downward Trend
On-chain data plays a crucial role in understanding Bitcoin’s price movements. Key metrics such as MVRV, SOPR, and NUPL are essential for determining price cycles. According to CryptoQuant’s data, the 365-day moving average, calculated using the average of these metrics, is used to identify major trend reversal points for Bitcoin.
Recent updates indicate that this moving average has entered a new downward trend. Historically, this level has been effective in determining the entry into bullish or bearish phases in the Bitcoin market. A similar signal has emerged as seen in the bear markets of 2014, 2018, and 2022. This suggests increased selling pressure in the Bitcoin market, potentially leading to a decrease or flat movement in the price of the leading cryptocurrency.
Bitcoin Whales Begin Selling Assets
The actions of Bitcoin whales further reinforce expectations of a market decline. According to Ju, new whales are selling their BTC at lower prices than they initially purchased. This indicates a reduction in liquidity in the market.
Historical data shows that when the bullish cycle ends, whales tend to sell large amounts. Similar situations were observed during the cycles of 2018 and 2021, leading to significant price drops. Current on-chain signals also suggest that whales are taking profits. As a result, the market is likely to remain under selling pressure in the coming months.
