Bitcoin’s price stability will be closely monitored this week as four major U.S. economic indicators are set for release between Wednesday and Friday. Each of these could play a significant role in whether Bitcoin stays above $67,000 or declines further after a challenging start to the year.
Economic updates expected to impact crypto markets
The week’s developments begin with the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes on Wednesday. On Thursday, markets will watch for February’s Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) inflation numbers alongside the final estimate of fourth-quarter GDP, with March’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) wrapping up the sequence on Friday.
Bitcoin started April trading around $69,000, having lost approximately 23% year-to-date after the weakest opening quarter for digital assets since 2018. Amid this downturn, the Crypto Fear and Greed Index has remained in extreme fear territory for over a month.
At the recent March meeting, the Federal Reserve chose to leave interest rates unchanged at 3.50–3.75%. Updates to the Fed’s dot plot indicated projections for only one interest rate cut before the end of 2026, with long-term inflation expectations moving higher.
Geopolitical tensions have further influenced markets. Following developments in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, oil prices have jumped nearly 50% since late February. The U.S. Energy Information Administration has increased its 2026 WTI oil forecast by $20 per barrel, meaning energy prices could now intensify upward inflation pressures in upcoming economic data.
All four economic releases are likely to affect Bitcoin, which recently displayed a high 24-hour correlation of 0.94 with the S&P 500. This shows Bitcoin is behaving as a high-beta macro asset, reacting strongly to U.S. financial conditions and policy signals.
Potential scenarios following U.S. data
Historically, Bitcoin has tended to dip following FOMC events, with declines recorded after eight of nine meetings in 2025. Traders are expected to scrutinize the FOMC minutes for the Federal Reserve’s stance on inflation, oil prices, and growth concerns. A more hawkish outlook could reinforce expectations for delayed rate cuts and strengthen the U.S. dollar, potentially weighing on Bitcoin, while a dovish signal could briefly support the cryptocurrency.
The PCE inflation print, expected at 0.4% monthly and 3.0% annually for core PCE, will be a central focus. Moving back to a 3% handle is crucial for future rate expectations. Higher-than-expected inflation would support a “higher for longer” narrative for policy rates, but a softer reading has the potential to lift Bitcoin by a few percentage points, as witnessed in previous months.
Fourth-quarter GDP is predicted to show 0.7% annualized growth, down from the previous quarter’s 4.4%. Slower growth could paradoxically aid Bitcoin by raising the likelihood of future monetary easing.
Attention will turn to the March CPI data on Friday, anticipated to jump to 3.3% year-over-year, the fastest pace since 2022 due primarily to fuel costs. The market’s response will hinge on core inflation figures. If core inflation remains contained, traders may dismiss the headline number as temporary. However, a sharp rise in core figures could dampen prospects for rate cuts through the rest of the year.
Recent history shows hotter inflation data has pressured Bitcoin short-term due to elevated rate expectations, while softer prints produced relief rallies. The close sequencing of economic news this week increases the likelihood of pronounced volatility in digital asset markets.
Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have provided one stabilizing factor, absorbing about 50,000 BTC in March—the highest monthly inflow since October 2025. Despite this institutional uptake, broader demand among large holders turned negative as more coins were distributed onto the market.
CME futures data and the correlation between the U.S. dollar index and Bitcoin are likely to act as real-time barometers as traders adjust their outlooks in response to each new data point. The interplay between macroeconomic headwinds and institutional investor activity will determine if Bitcoin can maintain its traditionally strong April performance or if recent weakness will persist.
