Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to suppress cryptocurrencies, with altcoins remaining in the red today. Despite positive PCE data, there was no significant impact on crypto. Although September is about to begin, the negativity of the new month has already settled over the markets. There are many reasons for this, one being a potential oversupply.
Bitcoin (BTC) September Forecast
The US and Mt Gox could still create an additional $15 billion in selling pressure in the markets. The US government holds 203,000 BTC worth $12.1 billion, and Mt Gox has yet to distribute 46,000 BTC worth $2.7 billion. Although exchanges and customers who have completed their processes have received their refunds, there are still around 2-3 thousand creditors awaiting payments from the Mt Gox trustee.
Kaiko’s report dated August 29 provides details about the Mt Gox refunds and states;
“Kraken managed BTC ETF flows with only a small increase in slippage at the close of the US market. The liquidity profile suggests that any additional selling pressure from Mt. Gox repayments is unlikely to cause structural issues that could affect the broader market.”
The good news is that creditors did not create massive selling pressure with the $4 billion BTC refund at the end of July. The ongoing issue in crypto for months is actually the lack of buyers in the spot markets.
Bitcoin and Crypto Predictions
The story that the US Government would wave the white flag on crypto until the elections turned out to be false. The SEC‘s latest move confirmed this. Thus, it is likely that the government will sell $12.1 billion worth of BTC in September. At least a few billion dollars’ worth could create extra pressure.
Moreover, the third quarters are historically not very promising. We are in the period with the lowest performance of the year. Additionally, polls regarding the November elections continue to position Kamala Harris ahead of Trump.
BTC, despite all the good news, remains below the psychological threshold of $60,000, even with an interest rate cut expected in about 18 days. According to Bitfinex analysts, the indifference typical of the summer months may continue into September. This means that $63,900 will remain a strong resistance level.
