Bitcoin (BTC) price continues to hover below $64,000, and altcoins are in the red again today. As a result of profit-taking during upward attempts, BTC faced rejection from resistance once more. The exhausting process does not seem to be over yet. Some data suggests that disappointment in crypto may continue for a while longer.
Why Isn’t Bitcoin Rising?
Powell said nice things, and Trump fully embraced crypto. Mt Gox sales ended, but despite many good news, BTC is still below $65,000. Since August 23, the $65,000 resistance has been tested twice but not surpassed, indicating that the consolidation process may continue.
Exchange Reserves
This could be one of the obstacles to the expected rise. According to CryptoQuant data, exchange reserves have increased by 2,000 BTC since last week. The lack of buying pressure in the market is more evident as inflows into exchange reserves are weak. This situation is a significant obstacle to the desired rise in cryptocurrencies.
Bitcoin Liquidity Indicator
Attempts at $65,000 led to the liquidation of short positions worth $140 million and $52 million. However, BTC price is experiencing a larger accumulation of long liquidations between $63,000 and $60,000. This indicates that the price may go down to clear these. Moreover, the intensity of BTC bid liquidity has also pulled back. Data on the futures side suggests that volatility may continue and there is a risk of a possible decline.
Long and Short Ratio
Market sentiment is monitored by tracking expectations in futures. Here, those expecting a rise open long positions, and those expecting a fall open short positions. Currently, 51.06% of open positions are short. A 10% recovery in BTC price did not discourage short sellers as expected.
Historical Data
When examining the data of the last 10 years for Bitcoin, gains in the third quarter average around 6%. The strongest gain period is the fourth quarter with 88%, followed by the first quarter. Compared to other months, August and September are not periods that bring much profit to investors.
If we see a strong upward movement in the next 30 days, it will be outside this historical trend. Since BTC has defied many historical patterns, this is not impossible.
