For the first time in over two years, Bitcoin investors have encountered significant losses, marking a notable shift in profitability trends. According to weekly on-chain data, asset sales since late December 2022 have resulted in losses, highlighting a weakened price momentum during a period when market perception began tilting towards a downward cycle. This paradigm change closely mirrors previous major cycles observed in the market.
Reversal in Profit Dynamics
On-chain analytics firm CryptoQuant reported a net realized loss of approximately 69,000 BTC in the Bitcoin network since December 23. This net loss over a 30-day period has not been observed since October 2023. A significant portion of these sales indicates that investors closed their positions at prices below their costs.
The gradual decline in realized profits since March 2024 has been coupled with a loss of momentum in price increases, eroding profitability. Analysts compare the current scenario with the 2021–2022 cycle, where peak net profits in January 2021 were followed by locally lower highs and eventually turned into losses, suggesting a similar timeline.
The current cycle shows similar patterns. Net profits peaked in January 2024, followed by lower peaks in December 2024, July 2025, and October 2025. As margins turned negative, network participants started recording net losses.
Signs of Early Bear Market Conditions
Data show net realized profits for Bitcoin stood at 4.4 million BTC in October 2025 and have dropped to 2.5 million BTC recently. This level is reminiscent of early bear market conditions not seen since March 2024, corresponding to market circumstances in March 2022 when price momentum weakened and sell pressure appeared in on-chain metrics.
The trajectory of net realized losses aligns with past cycles. In March 2022, with deepening downward trends, investor behavior indicated increased sales below cost. Current readings pointing to similar psychological states suggest cautious market participants with limited short-term recovery attempts.
Notable demand-side improvement is yet to be observed. Despite reports of limited recovery in demand conditions in recent weeks, there was no significant momentum in spot indicators or ETF-related inflows. On the contrary, demand has reportedly shrunk in the last 30 days. Previous findings also align with this weak outlook.
