Bitcoin 
$91,967‘s (BTC) price hovers below $107,000 with significant developments impacting interest rate decisions emerging in the past 24 hours. Anticipation builds as crucial announcements are expected in the coming week. In the European Union, various preparations are underway, and today’s PCE data was quite significant. Let’s delve into the events and projections concerning interest rates.
U.S. Inflation Figures
With the opening of the SP500 market, a new all-time high was reached. However, as often the case, BTC is not following the stock market’s upward trend or probably on the verge of a substantial breakthrough. Today, with $15 billion in options set to expire, movements around $107,000 were anticipated, but significant shifts could occur over the weekend.
The PCE data is a key inflation indicator monitored by the Fed, and the annual rate is diverging from the institution’s expectations. Excluding food and energy, core PCE experienced a monthly and yearly increase of 0.2% and 2.7%, respectively. Notably, personal consumption expenditures indicated a weakness, which was unexpected and personal incomes also fell against growth forecasts.
Fortunately, for the global economy, the anticipated base inflation of 10% and tariffs exceeding 20% in some countries have not yielded drastic inflationary results. Thus, we cannot confirm that tariffs have produced strong inflationary outcomes. The Fed’s primary concern was the extent of inflation tariffs’ impact, hence delaying rate cuts.
Will the Fed Cut Rates?
Three Fed members indicated a potential rate cut in July unless a significant inflation increase occurs. Waller, one of these members, emphasized that poor job creation data is a crucial employment signal, suggesting an imperative rate cut in July. Therefore, the Fed is moving away from unanimous decisions and towards majority-based resolutions.
Market predictions suggest three rate cuts might occur before the year’s end, with a 90% chance of a September cut. Additionally, Trump and the Commerce Secretary announced nearing the final stages of tariff agreements with several countries, soon to be disclosed. With July 9 nearing, only 33 days remain until the Fed’s rate decision.
If tariff agreements resolve uncertainty and maintain reasonable rates, the Fed might initiate swift rate cuts, assuming minimal inflation impact. The EU is currently evaluating the U.S.’s recent offer and is preparing a counter-strategy to strengthen its position.
In the coming week, countries announcing agreements, the details of these agreements, and the proximity to July 9 will shape markets. Fed members will share evaluations based on evolving developments, which we will update in real-time.
