At the beginning of the week, the average purchase price for short-term Bitcoin (BTC) 
$78,121 investors hovered around $97,000. The on-chain analysis platform CryptoQuant highlighted that the price relies on network-based support at $96,700. This region aligns with the average cost for short-term investors. Previous cycles indicate that breaking this threshold leads to increased sales, while maintaining it encourages fresh capital into the market. Presently, the Bitcoin market is holding its breath for the next move.
Importance of the $96,700 Support for Investors
The $96,700 range corresponds with the realized price indicator within the on-chain analysis for short-term investors. This means that the average cost for wallets that acquired BTC in the last 155 days is exactly this level. CryptoQuant analyst Abramchart pointed out the significance of this price threshold, labeling it as the ultimate technical and psychological stronghold.
Historical data reveals that prices holding at this level quickly recover with increased volume, whereas failing to hold can lead to searching for a bottom at $80,000. From this perspective, capital poised for buying may closely watch this area irrespective of spot ETF flows. Short yet sharp wicks test investor psychology while on-chain activity presently supports the network’s value.
Beyond on-chain metrics, futures funding rates have also approached a critical level. Yet, there is no significant increase in leverage, indicating that liquidations triggered by sharp price movements are not currently on the table. The MVRV ratio remains at 1.89, away from the overvaluation zone. However, miner sales have shown a slight increase in the past 24 hours.
Historically, when the hash price falls below $102, selling pressure tends to gain momentum. If these sales intensify, the $80,000 level might be tested in the short term. However, the inactive supply from long-term investors on the chain continues to balance this pressure. Meanwhile, buy orders from OTC desks in the evening increase the likelihood of completing the upcoming days in the positive zone.
Market Sentiment and Potential Scenarios
Liquidity in the spot market fell by 8% weekly, while the reverse delta curve in the options market points towards a gradual recovery over a 30-day period. Investors are busy adjusting their risk profiles ahead of US inflation data and the FOMC meeting, causing a partial delay in new buy orders. Despite a stablecoin inflow of $820 million outside the network, this remaining cash indicates a certain risk appetite. A sharp dip shortly might entice funds known to be bargain hunters, whereas a move above $101,000 may bring the $105,000 barrier back into focus.
In the technical chart, the falling wedge formation is unlikely to break unless supported by volume. Nevertheless, the Relative Strength Index (RSI) slowly curling upwards from level 38 in four-hour candles suggests a potential momentum shift.
Glassnode data shows no significant change in the number of active wallets, but a net outflow of 17,300 BTC from exchanges to wallets over the last three days is notable. This is the third-highest flow observed since August 2024, suggesting long-term holding investors are purchasing. If new exits from spot ETFs remain limited and there is no negative surprise from the macro front, the $96,700 level might once again function as “strong support.” Otherwise, a stronger bottom might be sought at the $80,000 level.
