Bitcoin is trading near the $63,000 mark, with market participants closely monitoring whether BTC can reclaim the crucial $63,400 resistance level or if a further test of lower support is likely before the next attempt to reach $65,000.
BTC hesitation persists as buyers and sellers eye support and resistance
At present, Bitcoin remains below a significant short-term resistance zone near $63,400, leaving the trend uncertain and opening the door to a possible pullback toward lower support before any recovery. Cryptocurrency analyst Michaël van de Poppe has outlined two likely near-term scenarios based on the four-hour chart. Both depend on whether buyers are able to defend key support areas and push BTC back toward $65,000.
In recent four-hour trading, Bitcoin hovered around $63,116—just under the $63,368 resistance level highlighted on van de Poppe’s analysis. He pointed to the $63,400 area as the immediate hurdle for bulls; a successful break above this would suggest a shift in price momentum toward the upside.
Despite brief moves higher, the price has yet to confirm a breakout. Bitcoin continues to trade below important moving averages, and the overall short-term structure remains pressured from the recent decline after early August highs. This keeps markets on alert for a potential sweep of lower liquidity.
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AAPLThe first support zone of significance is between $62,200 and $62,275. Van de Poppe noted that Bitcoin could dip below this range to trigger stop-losses, followed by a possible rebound if buyers quickly reclaim that area. A swift recovery in this scenario could boost confidence in a push toward $65,000.
Van de Poppe indicated that, “If Bitcoin reclaims support quickly after a possible dip to $62,200, this could set the stage for renewed upside momentum to $65,000.”
If the $62,200-$62,275 area fails to hold, further support is marked at $61,825, $61,545, and $61,318, which together represent a broader demand region for buyers to attempt to stabilize the price.
Should deeper declines persist, the focus would shift to the $60,500–$60,000 region. Van de Poppe described this area as a conservative support, suggesting that if Bitcoin tests this zone but eventually recovers, it may signal the end of a larger correction and set the stage for renewed strength.
A consistent move above $63,400 would serve as the first key confirmation of improving bullish momentum. Major resistance levels above are found near $64,515 and the broader target of $65,000.
Current chart signals suggest traders should remain cautious for now. A sweep below $62,200 followed by a rapid recovery would support a bullish outlook, while persistent weakness would bring $60,500 into the spotlight as the next major potential support.
Elliott Wave outlook implies one more correction phase
Matthew Dixon, chief executive officer of crypto analytics platform Evai, has offered a broader technical perspective using Elliott Wave analysis. Rather than seeing further weakness as the onset of a new bear cycle, his outlook considers the potential completion of a larger W-X-Y corrective structure starting from Bitcoin’s previous record highs.
On the daily chart, Bitcoin last traded near $62,937, roughly aligning with the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level at $63,036. This places the crypto asset at the lower band of its recovery range and leaves traders searching for clear breakout signals.
Dixon’s scenario suggests that a corrective B-wave rebound is first necessary. His analysis points to the $69,977 region—near the 1.0 Fibonacci level and close to the psychological $70,000 mark—as a potential recovery target. To reach this area, buyers must clear resistance points at $65,435, $66,507, and $68,033.
| Level | Approximate Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Immediate Resistance | $63,400 | Near-term breakout level |
| Further Resistance | $64,515 | Next key test for bulls |
| Major Target | $65,000-$70,000 | Upper scenario completion zone |
| Support Zones | $62,200 / $60,000 | Key downside regions |
Momentum also remains weak, as the 14-day Relative Strength Index stands at 42.6—below the neutral 50 mark—indicating that buyers have yet to establish strong momentum but do not face deeply oversold conditions.
Should the price fall below the immediate support at $60,892, it could fit with Dixon’s forecast for a final decline, potentially targeting the mid-$40,000s, though these projections remain scenarios rather than confirmed objectives.
Dixon argues that if Bitcoin forms a B-wave recovery and then drops one final time, this would likely conclude the extended corrective phase, setting the stage for a stronger rebound.
This interpretation holds significance for the longer-term view. A notable new low within this structure would not necessarily signal the start of a prolonged bear cycle, but could instead mark the end of the broader correction and open paths to the next sustained bullish recovery.
Mini dictionary: Elliott Wave theory, a technical analysis method based on the idea that market prices move in predictable wave patterns, is used by analysts to forecast the potential direction of financial assets by identifying corrective and impulsive wave structures.
