Bitcoin surged past $75,000 on Wednesday, as market participants reacted to the shifting role of the cryptocurrency amid escalating tensions connected to the Iran conflict and significant changes in derivatives trading patterns.
New tests in spot and derivatives markets
Bitcoin traded between $74,000 and $75,000 on April 15, rising about 23% from its recent low near $60,000 in February. This rebound comes at a time when global macroeconomic and geopolitical pressures remain elevated and investors closely monitor resistance zones in the crypto market.
The asset now faces a key technical barrier between $75,000 and $76,000, which has functioned as a ceiling for the last two months. Market watchers point out that if Bitcoin can maintain support above $71,000 and decisively break through $76,000, technical models could signal a move toward the upper $70,000s or even $80,000 in the near future. Conversely, failure to overcome this resistance could see the price retreat toward $70,000 or the low $60,000 range, where its last recovery began.
In futures markets, the narrative appears more cautious. Data from research firm K33 shows the 30-day average funding rate for perpetual swaps has remained negative for 46 consecutive days—matching levels last seen during the bear market bottom in late 2022.
This extended negative funding means that traders holding long positions have consistently received funding from those betting against the price, even as Bitcoin itself has rallied.
K33 Head of Research Vetle Lunde highlights that previous periods featuring rising prices and negative funding rates have often preceded short squeezes, where market bears are forced to cover their positions rapidly.
The Iran conflict reshapes Bitcoin’s role
The ongoing conflict involving Iran has accelerated a shift in how investors perceive Bitcoin, transforming it from a speculative, volatility-driven asset into a tool for geopolitical settlement and value transfer outside traditional systems.
Following the start of US and Israeli airstrikes in February, Bitcoin’s price climbed by around 12%, even as global stock indices fell and gold lost ground. This pattern challenges older assumptions that linked Bitcoin’s movements closely to high-growth technology markets.
Matt Hougan, Chief Investment Officer at Bitwise, observes that Bitcoin now exists as two parallel instruments for the market. On one side, it is a ‘digital gold’ that competes within the enormous global store-of-value market. On the other, it serves as a potential currency and settlement layer, offering a decentralized and neutral system for transferring value, especially in scenarios where traditional payment infrastructure is constrained.
Hougan frames this scenario as a world where increased reliance on permissionless networks follows financial sanctions, making Bitcoin more attractive for both aligned and non-aligned countries facing operational or policy restrictions.
Live implementation in the Strait of Hormuz
A significant development emerged when Iran began demanding Bitcoin as part of a $1-per-barrel transit fee for oil shipments passing through the strategic Strait of Hormuz. At current rates, this could add up to approximately $20 million in daily settlements using Bitcoin, placing the cryptocurrency directly in a real-world trade scenario connected to global energy markets.
Hougan traces these changes back to previous disruptions in international payments, such as Russia’s removal from the SWIFT network in 2022, which highlighted the vulnerability of national financial systems to political decisions.
Iran, a country often targeted by international sanctions and seeking alternative financial routes, has a GDP that ranks among the top 30 globally. Its integration of Bitcoin into significant settlement flows provides a practical test for the asset’s capacity to operate as a neutral payment mechanism outside the influence of any particular state.
These factors now coincide at the $75,000 price level, where technical and geopolitical themes are intersecting in real time.
