BTC lost $60,000 again, dashing hopes of the first leg of a stable rise. This bad situation and the constant lower peaks are causing bigger losses in altcoins. The movements that undermine risk appetite need to end at some point. So, what do analysts say?
Bitcoin Past Years Analysis
Analyst Chackmate, who wrote that he received similar signals in 2018, 2019, and 2021, warned crypto investors. The chart he looked at monitors the situation of investors holding BTC for less than 15 days. The analyst wrote that the STH chart shows a trend similar to previous downturns and that we could experience bigger drops with investor panic.
Essentially, the current situation is not very different. Short-term investors have become much more timid due to the constant interruption of rises. In market analysis, the analyst wrote;
“Keeping a coin below its cost base does not show how bad the situation is. Being below 1 is psychologically very different from being below -20%. Although 80% of STH coins are at a loss, the size of the unrealized loss is only 4% of the market value.”
Bitcoin Predictions
This picture for short-term investors is related to the sharp drop from $70,000 and the slow recovery. Considering today’s conditions, the feared drop may already be happening. Indeed, according to IntoTheBlock data, 81% of investors (across all groups) are profitable with the current BTC price. So, excluding STH, it’s not that terrible.
Checkmate also states that the cost price for Bitcoin mining is on average $57,200, and as long as the price remains above this, there may not be larger sales. Indeed, there is a miner reserve that has reached the bottom of the last few cycles. How much more they can sell is also a question mark.
“I can imagine that miners are struggling in the current environment and barely making a profit. For HODLers, this is largely irrelevant (and expected). For miners and shareholders… I hope for a rally.”
