Bitcoin’s long-term valuation model suggests it could have significant upside potential, with its next investor-top target set near $437,000. In the near term, however, analysts point to possible short-lived price advances before a reversal towards lower support levels.
Cycle Model Signals Potential for Six-Figure Bitcoin
According to a model constructed on Bitcoin’s two-year simple moving average (SMA), the major cryptocurrency may be far from its projected cycle top. The model, followed by market analyst Michaël van de Poppe, sets the upper boundary for the ongoing cycle at around $437,000, with van de Poppe indicating that a move above $500,000 cannot be excluded if momentum builds.
The two-year SMA model measures Bitcoin’s long-term valuation by identifying underlying accumulation and overheated phases. The lower band, which follows two times the SMA, is viewed as a region where large investors tend to accumulate Bitcoin during market lows. The upper band, calculated at five times the same moving average, has historically coincided with cycle tops and periods of extreme euphoria.
Currently, Bitcoin trades close to the lower investor band near $64,000, positioning it well beneath the cycle’s upper limit, according to the chart shared by van de Poppe. Despite this distance, there is no assurance that Bitcoin’s price will reach $437,000 during this cycle, as market factors and investor sentiment can shift unexpectedly.
Van de Poppe, a well-known Dutch market analyst and educator in the cryptocurrency sector, stated that the last market cycle ended with a more modest advance than many traders had anticipated. He argued that this may prompt investors to remain cautious and take profits early, potentially missing out if the current bullish trend strengthens further.
Van de Poppe has explained that many may use the previous cycle as a psychological anchor, which could trigger premature sell-offs in the event of stronger upward momentum.
A move to the $437,000 target would require an expansion in demand, deeper liquidity, and increased risk-taking from market participants. Bitcoin would also need to hold above prior highs and maintain a robust long-term uptrend, while avoiding any decisive drops below the model’s lower boundary.
While the model provides an ambitious projection, it does not specify a timeline nor guarantee a breakout to new all-time highs. The target should be interpreted as a cyclical estimate rather than a predetermined outcome.
Mini dictionary: Two-year simple moving average (SMA): A technical analysis tool that tracks the average closing price of an asset over a two-year period. In Bitcoin’s case, it is often used to identify long-term trends and potential support or resistance zones in market cycles.
Short-Term Resistance and Support Levels
On a shorter timeframe, Bitcoin may attempt to sweep above recent highs near $64,664 as traders position themselves before the consumer price index (CPI) data release. The analysis projects that this move could encounter resistance between $64,700 and $65,200, followed by a sharp reversal if buyers fail to establish support above that range.
The zone above $64,664 contains a liquidity pool likely filled with short stop-losses and breakout buy orders. A rapid move through this area could trigger a brief price spike as liquidity is collected, but may not result in a sustained rally if sellers regain control.
Van de Poppe indicated that the CPI release may provide the volatility needed to trigger such a sweep. However, for the outlined bearish scenario to play out, Bitcoin’s price would need to drop back below $64,664 after the run-up, signaling that the breakout failed to attract enduring buying pressure.
The analysis highlights that Bitcoin’s initial downside support is near $62,100, with heavier support between $59,700 and $61,000 if the retracement deepens.
If sellers maintain momentum below $62,100 and especially under $61,000, analysts foresee that the lower liquidity targets closer to $59,700 may become relevant. Conversely, should Bitcoin clear $65,200 and stabilize above these former highs, the outlook could turn bullish as buyers demonstrate enough strength to absorb existing liquidity and push the market higher.
| Level | Key Action | Implication |
|---|---|---|
| $64,700-$65,200 | Potential resistance, possible price sweep | Rejection could trigger reversal |
| $62,100 | First support | Holds if minor retracement |
| $59,700-$61,000 | Deeper support/liquidity zone | Target if correction accelerates |
| $437,000 | Cycle model top | Requires major breakout |
