Bitcoin is heading towards a worrying scenario as it approaches the CME opening, diverging from expectations of a potential price gap. Despite the absence of feared geopolitical tensions, particularly from Iran, Bitcoin has not experienced any significant surge in response. The cryptocurrency is making a concerning move towards daily candle closure below $77,000, which could indicate further decline at the Asian market opening. This raises questions about the future of cryptocurrencies in the coming days.
Macro Events Impacting Bitcoin This Week
This week promises to be intense on the macroeconomic front, with Friday being the most significant day due to the release of employment figures. Data from January suggested that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates for at least a couple more meetings. Upcoming figures will determine whether the interest rate cuts amidst employment concerns in the last quarter of 2025 were adequate, inadequate, or unnecessary. Last month’s report stated “adequate,” and if employment exceeds expectations, Fed hawks may comment on the December cuts being unnecessary.
Returning to Bitcoin, Turkish on-chain analyst Barış Kardeş emphasizes that the $77,000 level is critical and should not be lost by Bitcoin.
“Losing $77k must be avoided… Weighted Major Score 5.5. This level has historically indicated local bottoms. As the score increases, the likelihood of a bottom increases. During market bottoms, scores reached 8.7 and 10.”
At the time of writing, BTC remains under $77,000, but it is uncertain whether this is the final drop.
Analyst Anıl focuses on the CME gap, expressing hope, as there remains a gap on the upside that needs to be closed. Usually, CME price gaps tend to close in an unpredictable manner within three weeks.
“It seems like a $6-7k difference will arise at Bitcoin’s CME opening. At the very least, we have a reason to aim for $84k. Let’s remain patient, ladies and gentlemen.”
Cryptocurrency Expectations Moving Forward
BTC’s price is below the ETF cost average. The strategy cost zone is being breached, and continuing to close below $81,000 technically indicates a target for the long-term average of $56,000. From Monday onward, ETF investors’ trends will be critical. Trading volumes may be above normal as investors must decide between “seeing the dip as an opportunity to buy” or “selling due to fears of larger declines.” The spot price will move in the direction chosen by these investor actions.
“Bitcoin ETFs are crucial, especially for liquidity. BlackRock is at the center. Just observe Bitcoin’s price movements during IBIT inflows and outflows. Some things really matter. This is not just noise.” – anlcnc1
After the October 10 incident, markets did not return to their previous levels by early November, leading DonAlt to express concerns about potential tough times ahead. Consequently, he decreased his risks and converted most of his assets into cash. He states he is happy with his decision and believes it is not the right time to reenter the markets.
“I managed to exit luckily, avoiding a 30% drop in BTC and greater declines in altcoins. I will remain calm unless something disastrous happens or we reach unbearable levels (or unless we regain the levels lost over the last few weeks, which seems unlikely).”
