Bitcoin price dropped to the $27,200 level today after the release of high employment data. However, it quickly recovered. Such rapid price movements in a narrow range are not in favor of altcoins, and closing above $28,143 will be decisive for the next stage. So what are the expectations for the weekend?
Current Status of Bitcoin (BTC) Price
If you remember, the JOLTS data came in well above expectations. Then today’s Non-Farm Payrolls data was also announced well above expectations. These two data points indicate an increase in employment demand. Fed Chairman Powell had previously signaled further tightening in this regard.
On the other hand, Bitcoin price rose after falling due to the negative data. The increase was surprising as the US markets opened negatively. The move triggered by futures demand was supported by a $400 million increase in open positions. However, the funding rate was negative at the time of writing this article, reflecting the dominant expectation of a decline.
As a result of the lack of volume on the spot side, the price, which moves depending on the demand or sales in the futures market, leads to rapid ups and downs in a narrow range.
October 7-8 Crypto Predictions
Analyst known as CrypNuevo said that regardless of the price, today’s data could further anger the Fed. According to him, the 3.8% unemployment rate data will soon be revised downwards and may be erroneous. Despite the massive increase in job demand and job entries, the unemployment rate surprisingly came in 0.1 percentage point above expectations.
CrypNuevo thinks that the likelihood of the Fed making a new rate hike has increased. FedWatch gave a 25% probability increase yesterday, and today the expectation reached 30%. Last week, this figure was at 16%. Moreover, the expectation of an increase for the next 2 meetings is not negligible.
The Kobeissi Letter said the following;
“Moreover, it was expected that the Fed would pause until June 2024, but now a pause is expected until July 2024. The market futures dropped more than 400 points after the report. This is NOT what the Fed wants to see.”
Another analyst, Daan Crypto Trades, updated the analysis from the beginning of October and highlighted the decrease in Bitcoin’s open interest (OI). Previously, this situation reached levels that initiated downward fluctuations after upward fluctuations.
“We have lost $600 million in open interest since the highest level yesterday. We are reaching more average and ‘healthy’ levels again.”
In addition to all this, next week the US inflation data will be announced. Expectations regarding this data are negative as oil has risen significantly last month. Therefore, we may see a slight increase in core inflation and concerns about above-expectation headline inflation, which would reduce the risk for investors who want to hedge. This means that we may experience a negative 48 hours for cryptocurrencies over the weekend.
