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The Bitcoin (BTC) 
$103,640 price correction that began on September 14 may soon come to an end, potentially triggering a new rally. One of the primary reasons for this short-term shift is the expected announcement from the U.S. Federal Reserve regarding interest rate cuts on September 18. Additionally, the leading stablecoin issuer, Tether, is set to increase market expectations by issuing $1 billion in USDT on Monday.
Tether’s $1 Billion USDT Issuance and Its Market Impact
On September 16 at 01:50, Tether issued $1 billion in USDT. Historically, such developments have been seen as positive signs for the cryptocurrency market, typically influencing prices upward.
According to Santiment, Tether’s (USDT) total supply on exchanges has increased by $8.06 billion since 2024. In the last 24 hours, an additional $1 billion in USDT has been added to the stablecoin supply on exchanges.
Interestingly, the active stablecoin deposits to exchanges have remained relatively stable since 2024, ranging between 9,000 and 14,000.
Can Bitcoin Rise Before Fed’s Interest Rate Cut?
Since September 7, Bitcoin’s price has risen by 12%, reaching a local peak on September 14. A subsequent correction of around 3% has brought BTC to approximately $58,600. The anticipated Fed interest rate cut on September 18 is emerging as a significant factor that could affect BTC’s price.
According to the FedWatch tool, the probability of a 50 basis point rate cut is estimated at 59%. Regardless of the cut’s size, cryptocurrency investors are focusing on two potential scenarios:
- Risk-on scenario: Financial markets, both traditional and crypto, may rally. In this scenario, Bitcoin, Ethereum (ETH)
$2,360, and other cryptocurrencies are expected to continue gaining value, with BTC possibly retesting $65,000 before reclaiming $70,000 as a support level. - Risk-off outlook: Investors may steer their assets towards safer instruments like cash or stablecoins. This scenario might trigger panic selling in both stock and crypto markets, leading to price declines. Signs of recession in the U.S. economy could strengthen this possibility.
Bitcoin Price Analysis: Recovery Rally Expectations
Bitcoin has staged a rally of 12% by recovering from a downtrend line and the 50-week Exponential Moving Average (EMA). The current correction is expected to find support between daily levels of $57,201 and $57,970.
A bounce from these support points could provide the momentum needed for BTC to retest the critical resistance zone between $60,741 and $61,337. Surpassing these hurdles may propel Bitcoin to $63,987, representing a potential 10% increase.
Conversely, if Bitcoin’s price falls below the support level of $57,201, a 5% pullback towards the 50-week EMA at $54,291 could occur. A drop below the psychological level of $50,000 may trigger a larger downtrend.
The Bitcoin market is being influenced by significant developments, such as Tether’s $1 billion USDT issuance and the upcoming Fed interest rate decision. Investors are preparing for possible scenarios and adjusting their positions accordingly. Market dynamics and technical indicators will be critical in determining BTC’s direction in the near future.
