With only hours left until the November Fed interest rate decision, investors are cautiously optimistic this time around. For the past two years, each meeting has been anxiously anticipated. But what is the reason behind the growing optimism? And why should cryptocurrency investors remain cautious this week?
Fed Interest Rate Decision and Cryptocurrencies
We have seen uncertainty continue to rise on the macro front since mid-October. The global scale of the conflict is evolving into a new dimension. Meanwhile, both BTC and gold prices are reaching new highs in this uncertain environment. BTC, which made its highest weekly close since the beginning of May 2022, is maintaining most of its gains.
In order for the Uptober story to be confirmed, we would need to see a significant loss in BTC price over the course of 2 days. According to data from CoinGlass, the weekend surge cleared out short positions once again. This is now discouraging short-term traders who are trying to determine the right level for short selling. Bulls have been experiencing a similar situation for months and have become skeptical of further increases.
The interest rate decision will not be the main critical event of this week. It is now certain that interest rates will remain unchanged. However, the tone of the statements made by Powell will provide important signals for the next decision in December. While very optimistic remarks are not expected, the best development would be for the Fed chairman to indirectly announce the interest rate ceiling with similar statements to the previous meeting.
Macro Data is Important
This week, Bitcoin price and investors will face a major test. If we have managed to overcome the macro headwinds, the data on employment and wage increases throughout the week should not pull the price down. Unemployment, Non-Farm Payrolls, Wage Increases, and PMI data will reveal the current state of the US economy until the end of Friday.
On Sunday morning, we announced these important developments for the week in our article titled “Important Developments for Crypto This Week.”
November 2, Thursday
- 15:30 US Initial Jobless Claims (Expectation: 210K Previous: 210K)
November 3, Friday
- 15:30 US Average Hourly Earnings (Expectation: 0.3% Previous: 0.2% Monthly)
- 15:30 US Non-Farm Payrolls (Expectation: 182K Previous: 336K)
- 15:30 US Unemployment Rate (Expectation: 3.8%)
- 17:00 US PM Data
Make sure to take note of the time and expectations details to be prepared for possible volatility. If the BTC price remains stable despite the macro headwinds, it could indicate that the bear market might truly be coming to an end.
So, let’s welcome the decision week.
