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Bitcoin (BTC) price started its expected decline after the recent upward attempt, falling to $58,000. Investors are not surprised as this scenario has repeated for months. However, such consistent failures weaken market confidence and negatively impact investors’ risk appetite.
QCP Capital Crypto Assessment
Powell mentioned interest rate cuts, and the DXY dropped to a 52-week low. Risk markets are positive, but crypto is diverging negatively in this process. Although it seems to be pricing in bad news in advance, we have not seen a major event to justify the recent drop. So, what do QCP analysts think?
Today, in a recent assessment, they wrote:
“Powell displayed a dovish stance during Jackson Hole, stating it is ‘time to lower interest rates‘ to prevent the market from cooling too much.
Last week’s -800,000 job revision increased this risk. We believe the Fed’s reaction function is now more inclined to prevent a collapse in the employment market, and the bar for a 50 basis point cut in September is much lower.
The market is currently pricing in four cuts in 2024, despite only three meetings remaining.
US stock markets have remained resilient, approaching their highest levels. However, given the declining trading volumes and today’s NVDA earnings, we remain cautious that US stocks could peak again here. NVDA options are pricing in a 10% rise tonight.
We believe any decline in stocks (and crypto) will be short-lived. With Powell and the Fed ready to start a rate-cutting cycle, increasing liquidity will eventually lift risk assets. We are finally on the brink of a rate-cutting cycle.
The issue is not timing the market but spending time in the market. Given the crosswinds we are currently facing, timing the next rally is difficult. When the move happens, we prefer products that provide both yield and some upside flexibility to take advantage of it.”
This Week in Cryptocurrencies
After the US markets close in the evening, the NVIDIA earnings report will be released. AI tokens may move in the next few days with this report, and their potential for positive divergence continues. On Thursday, US growth figures will be released. A surprisingly low figure here would revive recession concerns, negatively impacting risk markets.
On Friday, we will close both August and the week with the PCE data. Investors should not overlook the risk of high volatility in the coming days.
