Analysts predict a significant increase in the price of Bitcoin, the world’s largest crypto asset, despite a roughly 15% drop from its all-time high of $73,738 in the last six days following the halving event. Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Fund, stated in a post shared on March 19th that it is normal for Bitcoin to be highly volatile in the months surrounding a halving event.
Prominent Figures Make Noteworthy Statements
Charles Edwards pointed out that the 12 months following the event would be the best risk-reward period for investors. He also suggested that inefficient miners would shut down after the planned Bitcoin halving event between April 18-20. According to CoinGecko data, Bitcoin was trading at $61,684 at the time the article was written.
Edwards expressed optimism for the long-term price movement, even though the correction seemed not to have ended yet, sharing the following statement:
“A much lower supply growth rate + the unlocking of suppressed Tradfi demand will come into play later, initiating historically the best 12-month risk-reward period for Bitcoin.”
While Edwards highlighted the halving event as a primary factor for Bitcoin’s price movements, Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, claimed that Bitcoin’s price is fueled not by the halving event but by spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund flows, sharing the following:
“Mining expenses will double after the halving event, pushing miners to maintain certain prices for profitability. The direct cost per Bitcoin will rise to about $37,000, but at $63,000, this is no longer a problem for them.”
Bitcoin and the Halving Process
Crypto analyst Rekt Capital told his 430,000 followers on Twitter that he is convinced there is more room for Bitcoin to fall and emphasized that Bitcoin has entered a danger zone where historical pre-halving pullbacks have started, sharing the following:
“Bitcoin will experience a deep pullback that will convince you the bull market is over, and then it will continue its upward trend.”
The Bitcoin price fell by about 50% in the months before the 2020 halving event, but the declines intensified with the COVID-19 outbreak in March. However, the remainder of that halving year was spent consolidating around $10,000 before the bull market resumed in 2021.
Looking back, Bitcoin prices fell by 33% during the 2016 halving event, ended the year with gains, and entered a bull market in 2017, peaking at $20,000. However, the 2024 halving event is largely uncharted territory, having occurred well below Bitcoin’s relative peak price and without significant institutional support provided by spot Bitcoin ETFs.
