Bitcoin has displayed strong resilience amid heightened geopolitical tensions, climbing more than 12% since February 28 even as the US-Iran conflict roils global markets. Debate remains over whether the market has reached its low point in this cycle or if further declines might follow.
Bitcoin’s cycle: timing the next bottom
Benjamin Cowen, CEO of Into The Cryptoverse, known for his data-driven market analysis and background as a former NASA researcher, provided insight into Bitcoin’s current trajectory. He highlighted the consistent timing patterns across previous Bitcoin cycles, emphasizing that the market generally finds its bottom about a year after reaching its peak.
Reviewing historical data, Cowen indicated that Bitcoin’s cycle tops have reliably occurred within a week of peaks from prior cycles. Drawing from this pattern, he proposed that the market could reach its new bottom around October 2026—roughly one year following a projected all-time high in October 2025.
“The base case has to just simply be that it’ll bottom when the other two cycles bottom, which is about a year after the top; the most likely scenario is October of 2026,” Cowen explained.
Cowen acknowledged that an earlier bottom is possible—potentially as soon as May—if an unusually sharp capitulation event were to occur, but he described this as unlikely under current conditions. As long as Bitcoin’s annual returns stay within historical norms for similar midterm election years, his October thesis stands.
“If you look at the year-to-date ROI of Bitcoin in 2026 and compare it to the average of prior midterm years, add a standard deviation, and we’re still within this band, it’s hard to assume we’ll exit it this early,” he said.
Other industry voices support similar timeframes. Joao Wedson, CEO of Alphractal—a data analytics platform focused on cryptocurrency cycle patterns—pointed out that the 2021 cycle top occurred just 534 days after the April 2024 halving, marking the shortest interval yet. Using this decaying trend across cycles, Wedson’s analysis targets the next bottom between late September and early October 2026.
Data from CryptoQuant further aligns with these views, modeling a likely bottom between June and December 2026, with the window from September through November flagged as especially probable.
Shift in market sentiment: from euphoria to apathy
Cowen observed a significant change in the behavior of this market cycle compared to previous instances. Unlike the 2017 and 2021 peaks, which saw substantial retail enthusiasm and triggered broad altcoin rallies, the current cycle topped under subdued sentiment and waning social interest in cryptocurrency.
He noted that, historically, peaks driven by euphoria have led to altcoin surges post-Bitcoin top. This time, the absence of widespread excitement has meant altcoins have not experienced the same rotation.
“This is a cycle where Bitcoin topped on apathy rather than euphoria, and the only other time this happened was in 2019. When you top on apathy, you don’t get that same rotation,” Cowen remarked.
This shift underscores a maturing market and may signal a more cautious investor base compared to the manic surges of past cycles. Bitcoin’s structure as a decentralized digital currency with a fixed supply continues to influence market dynamics through its four-year halving cycles, with halving events historically serving as major catalysts for price movements.
Currently trading at $73,831, Bitcoin remains more than 40% below its last all-time high, which approached $126,000 in October 2025. Analysts will continue to watch for key developments as the next halving draws closer and market participants attempt to anticipate further trends.
