Bitcoin reached $69,000 at the time of writing, which was not very surprising. Why did it rise? Recent data influenced the increase. However, investors do not share the same views as the Fed on fighting inflation in early 2024. Additionally, risks like MTGOX lead to profit-taking at higher levels.
Why Did Cryptocurrencies Rise?
US Q1 GDP data fell in line with expectations. Unemployment claims were 2,000 above expectations. Employment should ease, economic growth should be balanced, and inflation should fall. If this happens, the Fed might implement the 75bp cut scenario it predicted for this year. Otherwise, several possibilities arise.
- The economy slows, and the Fed has to ease its tight monetary policy. But it can’t do this if inflation doesn’t fall.
- The Fed might have to cut rates despite sticky inflation as recession risks rise, causing crypto to rise while inflation control takes longer.
- The economy slows, and the Fed doesn’t cut rates; if both happen simultaneously, cryptocurrencies may fall more amid rising prices and unemployment.
So, inflation should fall, and the economy should grow at reasonable levels. Popular trader Skew described the latest data positively. According to predictions from CME Group’s FedWatch tool, markets still do not expect a rate cut before September.
Cryptocurrency Commentary
Recent data from CoinGlass indicates that resistance for BTC strengthened at $69,000 today. Simultaneously, liquidity held at the $66,800 support also strengthened. Mosaic Asset’s May 23 report commented that “easing financial conditions” would lead to more rises in risky markets.
This report, which also reassured investors worried about declines, assessed that this was “nothing more than a pause in a bull market trend.”
“And if credit is relatively cheap and available, it should be reflected in positive movements in speculative asset classes. This includes areas like high-yield bonds, which continue to rise to new highs. The next area I watch for confirmation is cryptocurrencies and especially Bitcoin.”
