Bitcoin has staged a strong recovery, climbing above a key technical indicator that historically signaled the end of previous bear market cycles. The cryptocurrency was last trading at $79,172, posting a daily gain of 2.63%, as its trading volume totaled $95.18 billion and its market capitalization reached $1.60 trillion.
Key technical break above 1,130-day SMA
On August 24, market analyst Ali Martinez stated that Bitcoin’s price found support at the 1,130-day simple moving average (SMA), a level that had played a crucial role in defining market bottoms in the past. According to Martinez, Bitcoin’s retest and rebound from this indicator during the current market cycle adds to the evidence that the correction phase may be ending.
Martinez pointed out that in each of the previous four cycles, the start of a new bull market followed Bitcoin’s reclaiming of the 1,130-day SMA, increasing speculation that the latest pullback might have hit the cycle bottom rather than prolonging the downturn.
Bitcoin broke below the 1,130-day SMA on June 1, 2026, remaining under the indicator for nearly 80 days while the asset faced intense selling pressure and reached oversold conditions. A decisive change occurred on August 20, when Bitcoin surged above $74,000 and closed above the long-term moving average again.
Reclaiming this technical line is seen by analysts as a potentially bullish development, suggesting that the former resistance could now act as a strong support zone as the asset continues to rebound.
Despite these encouraging signals, previous cycles have also seen failed breakouts, and analysts caution that a sustained move above resistance levels is needed for confirmation of a new upward trend.
Mini dictionary: Simple Moving Average (SMA), a technical indicator showing the average price of an asset over a set period, often used by traders to identify trend direction or support and resistance levels.
| Indicator | Current Value | Critical Level |
|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin price | $79,172 | $82,000 (key resistance) |
| 1,130-day SMA | Regained | Previously resistance, now support |
Technical indicators and market momentum
The latest rebound pushed Bitcoin above the upper Bollinger Band, which stands at $79,224.74, while the middle and lower bands are at $67,552.18 and $55,879.62, respectively. Positioning near the upper band suggests significant recent buying activity but could also point to the market needing time to consolidate if the rally proceeds too rapidly.
Meanwhile, Bitcoin’s Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently at 83.14, far above the traditional overbought threshold of 70. The average RSI sits at approximately 61.35. Elevated RSI levels often indicate a risk of a near-term price pullback, yet in strong bull markets, overbought conditions can persist as buyers drive prices higher.
Technical analysts note that an overbought RSI may elevate the probability of a correction but does not guarantee immediate downside, especially if overall momentum remains strong.
As traders monitor Bitcoin’s ability to maintain support at $79,000 and remain above the 1,130-day SMA, attention also turns to the $82,000 resistance. A clear break above this level would offer stronger evidence that this year’s lows represent a cycle bottom, while a failure to hold above the recently overtaken levels could undermine the bullish reversal case.
Buyers gain advantage, but confirmation awaited
The recovery of the 1,130-day SMA gives buyers a fresh technical edge, supported by rising ETF flows and moves above several key indicators. However, further confirmation, such as a sustained breakout above $82,000, is seen as necessary to solidify the view that the 2026 bear market low is behind Bitcoin.
