This week, global economic headlines were relatively subdued and data releases sparse. The main source of anxiety, however, was the ongoing situation with Iran—triggering a flurry of statements from officials over the past 24 hours. As the weekend neared, Bitcoin’s price slipped to around $66,000, in line with expectations. With these fast-moving events, analysts are updating their forecasts for Bitcoin’s next move.
Why Are Cryptos Falling?
Yesterday, former US President Trump extended a critical deadline to April 6, highlighting a lack of progress in key negotiations. Under mounting pressure, Iran refuses to join direct talks but maintains indirect communications. Meanwhile, the United States is eager to end its military operations, which were initially designed to last no more than six weeks.
Neither side is willing to accept a deal that would signify defeat. With Iran suffering substantial losses, both parties are determined to drag out the process to create more room for maneuvering. Although Iran has previously insisted it will not abandon its nuclear ambitions, Washington’s latest statements this week suggest Tehran may be reconsidering that stance. Still, Iran’s missile program remains a major sticking point. The possibility that the US might move to force Iran back to the negotiating table this weekend has pushed cryptocurrencies downward. With the final deadline set for the coming week, concrete steps will be necessary before next Sunday evening.
Officials from the European Central Bank and EU warn that the protracted conflict is likely to affect inflation, growth, and other key economic metrics. The Federal Reserve, meanwhile, appears to be reconsidering its plans for rate cuts—possibly even shifting discussion toward a rate hike scenario. Even if Warsh were to replace Powell as Fed chair in May, his hands might be tied when it comes to lowering rates.
Experts Weigh in on Bitcoin’s Outlook
The analyst known as DaanCrypto downplayed the latest market drop, attributing it to the typical risk-off shift seen before weekends in recent weeks.
“BTC, as expected and as we have observed in recent weekends, is showing a tendency for risk reduction before the weekend. The spotlight is now on the $65,600 low recorded last Monday. For me, the critical area to watch remains the bottom of the current range, where there’s still significant liquidity.”
For traders focusing on short-term moves within a tight range, current market conditions have been largely favorable. The analyst dubbed Altcoin Sherpa adopts a more cautious tone, predicting a possible slide below $60,000. Sherpa cautions that while the upper boundary of the range has faced repeated failed tests, a healthy price correction may require a test of the lower band as well.
Renowned for his optimistic take, analyst Poppe nonetheless warns that, with the month drawing to a close, a deeper Bitcoin correction would not be surprising at this stage.
Even Poppe, who is typically bullish, now echoes Sherpa’s outlook—raising the possibility that Bitcoin could dip to $60,000. As highlighted at the outset, the Iran issue remains highly sensitive, and any breaking news could catch bearish traders off guard.
