Charles Edwards, founder of Capriole Investments, claims that growing concerns over quantum risk are behind Bitcoin’s latest price downturn. According to Edwards, the insufficient attention developers are paying to this threat has pushed what he calls the “Bitcoin Quantum Discount” to a record high of 28 percent.
The gap between price and model value widens
Edwards’ modeling shows that Bitcoin has dropped 15.60 percent in recent weeks, falling to $62,099.03. This decline has sent the price below even the “Discount Factor” yellow line in his valuation model. The line is based on the premise that Bitcoin’s core value is steadily marching toward $120,000.
Charles Edwards attributes the current price pressure to a sluggish response to the quantum threat and argues that the market is pricing in this risk, leading Bitcoin to trade well below its theoretical value.
Capriole Investments is recognized for its sharp focus on digital assets and macro-level analysis. Edwards himself is known in the industry for his Bitcoin valuation models and on-chain market commentary.
Renewed debate over quantum risk
Edwards argues that Bitcoin Core developers are falling behind in adopting post-quantum cryptography, resulting in mounting price pressure. He warns that the Elliptic Curve Digital Signature Algorithm (ECDSA) currently used by Bitcoin could be compromised by quantum computers—a “Q-Day” scenario he estimates could become increasingly likely after 2027, potentially reaching a 63.53 percent risk level by 2030.
Mini glossary: ECDSA is a public-key digital signature standard used to sign Bitcoin transactions. Post-quantum cryptography refers to new cryptographic techniques designed to withstand attacks from powerful quantum computers that could undermine classic digital signature systems.
Edwards further contends that without an official upgrade plan for the network within the next twelve months, Bitcoin may be technically unable to reach a new all-time high, and price weakness could linger as the quantum discount persists.
Corporate leverage and individual investor dynamics
Beyond technological risks, Edwards draws attention to growing debt on corporate balance sheets. He singles out Michael Saylor’s leveraged Bitcoin accumulation strategy at MicroStrategy, warning that such tactics may expose company treasuries to hidden vulnerabilities.
Edwards also points to an evident withdrawal among retail investors. A string of faulty meme coin launches and sudden crashes, he says, have led to lasting distrust in the “get rich quick” narrative, eroding one of Bitcoin’s traditional sources of grassroots support: new retail capital inflows.
What could close the discount gap?
In Edwards’ assessment, the current 28 percent discount reveals that market fears over technology risks have caused Bitcoin to be undervalued. He suggests that an official announcement of completed post-quantum signature code could spark a rapid revaluation, driving the price closer to its modeled fair value.
