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10X Research analysis indicates that the planned block reward halving for Bitcoin (BTC) on April 19 could spark a significant rally in the largest cryptocurrency. According to the research firm, the biggest crypto could refresh its record high before the block reward halving.
Bitcoin Could Surpass Its Last Record High Before Block Reward Halving
Research company 10X Research suggests that past data and technical indicators point to a potential increase of over 30% in Bitcoin’s value within the eight weeks preceding the block reward halving. With Bitcoin’s monthly Relative Strength Index (RSI) climbing above 80, a level historically associated with significant price increases, analysts predict the current uptrend will continue and potentially push Bitcoin’s price toward or even beyond its all-time high of $69,000.
Markus Thielen, founder of 10X Research, notes that the current price trend is consistent with the pattern observed in previous Bitcoin block reward halving cycles, where the price typically rose by an average of 32% in the 60 days prior to the halving. Thielen emphasizes that the pre-halving price increase is a strong historical precedent.
Considering Bitcoin’s current price around $52,000, a 32% rally could bring the price close to its all-time high, indicating significant upward potential in the coming weeks.
Other Factors Fueling Bitcoin’s Bullish Expectations
Thielen highlights the impact of market sentiment in both the crypto and TradeFi communities on Bitcoin’s price dynamics. The bullish outlook based on the block reward halving is driving aggressive buying activity, further supporting the upward momentum in Bitcoin’s price. Additionally, strong inflows into US-based spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) reflect the bullish trend among traditional investors looking to invest in the largest cryptocurrency.
Technical analysis using the RSI indicator reinforces the bullish outlook for Bitcoin’s price. The recent rise of Bitcoin’s 14-month RSI value above 80 indicates strong bullish momentum, while past data shows significant price increases following similar RSI signals. Based on historical performance, analysts forecast a potential rise to $74,600 in the next 60 days, assuming historical trends continue.
While past performance serves as a guide, analysts caution that macroeconomic factors could affect market dynamics and trends. However, the current macroeconomic environment, with anticipated stimulative fiscal policies in the US and strong global economic growth expectations, seems to support increased risk-taking. Goldman Sachs has revised its year-end forecast for the S&P 500 to 5,200, citing positive economic indicators and a weaker dollar. This could further boost investor confidence in Bitcoin and other risk assets.
