Bitcoin’s (BTC) current market behavior has drawn investor attention by making notable comparisons to the 2015-2017 bull market. With optimistic forecasts and historical parallels, Bitcoin’s outlook remains promising as it reflects patterns from formative bull market years.
Historical Data on Bitcoin
The leading cryptocurrency Bitcoin recorded a correction of over 20% after reaching an all-time high of approximately $74,000 in March 2024. This was the sharpest market correction on a closing basis since the FTX collapse in November 2024. However, Bitcoin nearly recovered from this drop, reaching $72,000 on May 21. At the time of writing, it is trading around $69,000. The on-chain analytics platform Glassnode stated:
From a comparative perspective, the pullback pattern in the 2023-24 uptrend looks quite similar to the 2015-17 bull market.
During the mentioned period, Bitcoin had no futures trading, and the market was primarily driven by fundamental spot transactions. The launch of US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and inflows into these funds strengthened a strong market foundation similar to earlier times. Given the past, the comparison gains importance. In the early periods, Bitcoin’s market infrastructure was underdeveloped and emphasized organic growth driven by core demand rather than speculative transactions. Today, the reliance on spot transactions indicates a return to these fundamental dynamics, potentially signaling a more sustainable growth trajectory.
Effects of ETFs
Last week, ETF inflows rose to an average of $210 million daily. This shift highlights a strong re-accumulation phase, contrary to the selling pressures exerted by Bitcoin mining, which applies a daily selling pressure of approximately $32 million due to the halving event. Although there has been a slight slowdown in ETF inflows in recent weeks, the overall trend remains positive.
According to the data obtained, there has been a net inflow of $122.1 million into ETFs so far this week. This ongoing capital flow indicates strong buyer-side demand supporting the Bitcoin market. On-chain analysis by Santiment further supports this trend, showing that Bitcoin wallets holding at least 10 BTC have increased their holdings by 154,560 BTC over the past five months. This accumulation pattern among larger wallet holders is a critical indicator of market sentiment generally associated with bullish phases.
