Bitcoin is generating technical patterns similar to those that have historically preceded significant bull runs, raising speculation that the cryptocurrency could be positioned for a major upward move. Despite this optimism, analysts note that several resistance and support levels must be navigated before higher price targets can be considered.
Macro Bottom Patterns Reappear
Ali Martinez, a cryptocurrency market analyst, observed that Bitcoin’s technical setup now echoes those seen near the 2015, 2019, and 2022 market bottoms. The key indicators include a monthly relative strength index (RSI) close to 43.65, a Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO) around -71, and a price test of the 50-month moving average. In past cycles, this combination has preceded extended periods of strong price growth.
Although similar signals have signaled macro bottoming regions, Bitcoin sometimes briefly fell below these signals before entering new rally phases. For this reason, Martinez stated that the current chart setup points toward a possible long-term bottom, but does not guarantee an exact local low.
On-chain metrics such as the Market Value to Realized Value (MVRV) ratio and the Cumulative Value Days Destroyed (CVDD) indicator suggest that Bitcoin could still move down toward the $40,000 to $50,000 range. Maintaining the 50-month moving average could reinforce the case for a bottom, while losing it may open the door for further declines to those on-chain support levels.
Mini dictionary: Chande Momentum Oscillator (CMO), a technical analysis indicator measuring momentum by comparing recent gains and losses over a selected period, helping traders identify potential price reversals.
Bullish Divergence and Resistance Zones
Crypto Patel, another closely followed analyst, reported that Bitcoin is forming a weekly bullish divergence similar to the pattern that appeared during November 2022’s cyclical low. In that previous instance, price made a lower low while the RSI printed a higher low, indicating a potential end to bearish momentum. Historically, this configuration led to a price gain exceeding 100% within about 150 days.
Drawing on this precedent, Patel projects that Bitcoin could rise toward $116,000 before November 2026. However, he cautioned that a single historical situation does not guarantee a repeat, as market conditions are subject to many variables.
Patel linked the bullish case to $116,000, but clarified “one historical setup alone cannot confirm the exact path,” urging caution as movements can differ with each cycle.
Key resistance levels stand at approximately $82,750 and $97,700. Successfully breaking through these would strengthen the argument for a push toward Patel’s $116,000 projection. Should Bitcoin surpass $116,000, the next primary resistance is around $123,400. Conversely, dropping below recent lows may weaken the current divergence and postpone bullish momentum.
| Level | Approximate Price | Significance |
|---|---|---|
| Support | 50-month moving average | Confirms macro bottom if held |
| Support Zone | $40,000–$50,000 | On-chain support |
| Resistance 1 | $82,750 | Initial upside barrier |
| Resistance 2 | $97,700 | Critical hurdle before target |
| Target Resistance | $116,000 | Projected upside in scenario |
| Major Resistance | $123,400 | Next resistance if $116,000 broken |
Analysts emphasized that holding critical support zones is necessary for Bitcoin to keep a bullish outlook intact. Failure to maintain these levels would negate recent positive signals and could trigger further selling pressure.
Martinez pointed to the alignment of historical indicators as “suggestive of a macro bottoming region” but highlighted that further weakness cannot be completely ruled out at this stage.
