Bitcoin dropped under the $63,500 mark on Wednesday as the latest US inflation data came in line with analyst expectations, offering little support for a rebound in the cryptocurrency market.
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AAPLInflation data aligns with forecasts
According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the July Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.1% month-over-month and 3.4% year-over-year. Core CPI, which excludes the impact of food and energy prices, increased by 0.2% for the month and 2.5% annually. All figures matched consensus estimates and signaled neither a strong acceleration nor a sharp cooling in inflation pressures.
Despite meeting expectations, Bitcoin was unable to sustain upward momentum. By the end of the trading day, BTC/USD slipped to $63,487, reflecting a 0.2% drop from the session’s opening levels.
While stock markets remained steady and gold continued to hover near nine-week highs, Bitcoin failed to share in the positive sentiment, highlighting a disconnect from broader asset trends.
Fabian Dori, Chief Investment Officer at Sygnum Bank — a major Swiss digital asset bank — commented that the combination of July’s CPI results and the prior week’s weaker jobs data showed “gradual cooling without a recession scare.” He viewed the chances of a Federal Reserve policy shift in September as largely unchanged.
Data from the CME FedWatch Tool indicated a significant change in expectations, with markets now pricing a 60% to 62% probability that the Federal Reserve will keep its key interest rate within the 3.50% to 3.75% range in September. This is a sharp increase compared to the 30% likelihood registered just one month ago.
Technical support weakens near $63,000
Market analyst Rekt Capital highlighted growing fragility at the $63,000 technical support level for Bitcoin. He observed that recent rebounds from this price level have shown weaker momentum, declining sequentially from 6.27%, to 5.83%, to 3.18%, and most recently to just 1.15%.
At some point, the bounces will become so weak that the floor will simply break, he warned on X.
Bitfinex Alpha reported that despite major US equity indices notching new highs over the previous fortnight, Bitcoin has failed to achieve a daily close above the $65,000 to $65,500 range since July 26. This occurred even as the cryptocurrency made six consecutive daily intraday highs above that threshold between August 5 and August 10.
| Support Bounce | Rebound Percentage |
|---|---|
| 1st attempt | 6.27% |
| 2nd attempt | 5.83% |
| 3rd attempt | 3.18% |
| 4th attempt | 1.15% |
Derivative markets point to downside risk
Derivatives market activity reflects a growing expectation of further declines in Bitcoin. Andrei Grachev of DWF Labs, a digital asset investment firm, noted that put options targeting the $60,000 strike for late-August expiry are now commanding higher premiums than call options at the $70,000 level, a sign that traders see greater risk to the downside.
Market observer Ted Pillows shared via X that while traditional equities and precious metals remain resilient, Bitcoin has struggled to hold above $65,000. He suggested that the price may drop toward the $60,500 to $61,000 region before any potential recovery emerges.
Despite rallies in stocks and metals, Bitcoin has failed to maintain strength above $65,000 and may slip toward $60,500–$61,000 before rebounding.
Bitcoin trading volume hits lowest since 2019
Blockchain analytics firm Glassnode reported that spot exchange trading volume for Bitcoin has fallen to its lowest level since early 2019. Wu Blockchain, a cryptocurrency news outlet, emphasized that Glassnode has flagged $58,500 as a crucial support line. If the price breaches this level, the lack of liquidity and leveraged positioning could amplify downward pressure below June’s multi-month low.
Attention now turns to the July Producer Price Index (PPI) release scheduled for Thursday, which market participants will watch closely for further signals on inflation and monetary policy direction.
Mini dictionary: Glassnode, a prominent blockchain analytics platform, provides on-chain and market data to help investors track and interpret developments in cryptocurrency markets.
