A recent report from blockchain analytics firm CryptoQuant reveals that Bitcoin has fallen below a historically significant on-chain support level, one that has separated bull and bear phases in previous market cycles. This critical threshold represents the realized average cost of a specific group of holders—those with balances between 10 and 10,000 BTC who have moved their assets within the last one to three months. The breach carries implications for Bitcoin’s market structure and overall momentum.
The Influence of Medium-Sized Holders
These mid-sized holders are notable for both their aggregate market impact and their ability to reflect current trends more dynamically than other segments. According to the freshest data, the realized price for this cohort stands at roughly $89,800. Notably, Bitcoin has not traded above this mark since January 2026, underscoring the magnitude of the recent downturn.
Structural Significance in Previous Cycles
Historically, the average cost basis of these participants has acted as a structural pivot in Bitcoin’s market cycles. In the 2021 rally, for example, this group’s average entry price was around $33,700 when Bitcoin hit all-time highs that November. Even as the market corrected, prices never dipped below their cost, helping preserve investor confidence. However, by mid-2022, Bitcoin sank by nearly 30% beneath this benchmark and tumbled to $18,945, marking a clear entry into a bear market.
“In the past, this realized price level served as a structural boundary between bull and bear markets. When mid-sized, active holders fell into loss territory, it typically signaled underlying market weakness,” CryptoQuant highlighted in its assessment.
During the interim pullback in 2021, Bitcoin prices never violated this foundational level, allowing optimistic sentiment to hold firm among mid-sized holders and preventing panic.
Shifting Landscape in the Current Cycle
The latest market dynamics, however, paint a different picture. By the end of 2025, the average acquisition price for this group had risen to $94,000. Since December 2025, Bitcoin has traded below this threshold, with little sign of substantive recovery. As of February 2026, the price has hovered near $66,424—putting mid-level holders down by around 26% compared to their average cost.
The protracted period during which prices have languished below the cost base of these influential holders sets this cycle apart from previous corrections, which were mostly short-lived. CryptoQuant’s analysis suggests that such prolonged losses among mid-sized holders could delay any substantial market rebound.
Unlike in 2021, when this cohort never slipped into the red during corrections, the current magnitude and duration of their losses are notable. This shift provides a key signal of structural change—and possible weakness—in the ongoing market cycle.
CryptoQuant maintains that unless Bitcoin decisively reclaims this important level, claims of the market regaining structural strength would be premature. They emphasize that sustained trading below this cost acts as a more telling indicator of the market’s health than fleeting rallies or volatility.
