Bitcoin traded near $79,000 on September 4 following a turbulent 24-hour period in which the leading cryptocurrency briefly surpassed $81,000 but failed to maintain its gains. The price retreat came after US employment figures for August surprised analysts, bolstering expectations of a stricter interest rate stance from the Federal Reserve.
US jobs data impacts Bitcoin volatility
The August payroll report showed the US economy added 162,000 jobs, almost triple the 56,000 forecast by economists. The unemployment rate remained at 4.1%, while average hourly earnings increased by 0.3% from July and were up 3.1% year-over-year. Notably, July payrolls were also revised upwards from a previous decline to a 21,000 job gain.
Following the jobs release, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate hike at the September 16 policy meeting climbed to 62%, as stronger hiring data provided policymakers more room to maintain current restrictive monetary policy. As a result, Bitcoin, which had rallied from below $78,000 to briefly trade near $82,000, dropped back below $80,000. Over the past week, the coin’s performance has stayed roughly flat.
Recent jobs data raised speculation that the Federal Reserve might increase rates in September, putting pressure on Bitcoin after its failed attempt to hold above $80,000.
Market drivers: Fed speculation and ETF inflows
Bitcoin’s initial move above $80,000 was partially fueled by comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller, who signaled that he may support holding rates steady at the central bank’s next meeting if inflation figures show improvement. His remarks briefly increased expectations that rates would remain unchanged, helping cryptocurrencies and other risk assets recover.
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AAPLAnother strong factor supporting Bitcoin prices came from spot exchange-traded fund (ETF) demand. On September 3, US spot Bitcoin ETFs saw record net inflows of $731 million, the largest daily intake since January, according to data from SoSoValue. BlackRock’s IBIT contributed $454 million of the total.
However, after the positive employment report, macroeconomic sentiment quickly shifted again, weighing on risk assets. Bitcoin’s ability to maintain $80,000 has been challenged by these opposing forces: robust ETF buying on one hand, and renewed interest-rate risk on the other ahead of the Fed’s policy decision.
Investors are now closely watching upcoming economic data, particularly the US inflation reading scheduled for September 11. Waller has indicated in previous remarks that further improvement in inflation data would support his case for keeping rates unchanged, giving additional importance to the next consumer price index release.
Regulatory developments could also drive market sentiment. The US Senate is expected to hold a procedural vote on the CLARITY Act, a proposed bill affecting crypto regulation, on September 15. The Federal Reserve’s policy meeting and Chair Kevin Warsh’s comments are expected to follow on September 16.
ETF flows are likely to remain an influential market driver in the days ahead. Sustained inflows could help Bitcoin regain ground, while renewed outflows may hinder its ability to establish meaningful support above $80,000.
BTC price analysis: Technical outlook
Bitcoin’s daily chart shows the price hovering near $79,000 after reaching an intraday high above $81,400. This level remains significant, as the $80,000 region has not yet been clearly established as support. Despite the recent rejection, Bitcoin retains gains made during its August breakout from the $63,000–$65,000 zone.
| Moving Average | Current Level |
|---|---|
| 50-day SMA | $68,759 |
| 100-day SMA | $66,330 |
| 200-day SMA | $69,621 |
| BTC Price | $79,000 |
All major simple moving averages (SMAs) remain well below the current price, with Bitcoin roughly 13% above the highest SMA, leaving the daily trend positive but also without substantial short-term support below.
Momentum indicators reinforce the mixed picture. The Aroon Up indicator stands at 92.86%, and Aroon Down has dropped to 0%. This suggests that the uptrend remains intact, even as momentum has cooled—evidenced by the Commodity Channel Index, which has fallen to 63.51 after peaking above 300 during the initial breakout.
The Chaikin Money Flow remains positive at 0.31, pointing to ongoing accumulation. If Bitcoin holds the $78,000–$79,000 area, another attempt to break above $80,000 is possible. Conversely, a drop below $78,000 could bring $76,000–$77,000 into play as the next area of support.
Mini dictionary: Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator that measures the volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a set period, helping traders assess buying and selling pressure in an asset.
According to the latest liquidity heatmaps, concentrations of leveraged positions are clustered between $78,000 and $78,700, and a larger pocket is present between $76,000 and $77,000. On the upside, the main concentration of liquidity sits around $81,700–$82,300, near Friday’s price peak.
A recovery above $80,000 could trigger short liquidations and push Bitcoin towards $82,000. Failure to hold current support levels may increase the risk of a deeper pullback, with $78,000 and $77,000 identified as possible downside targets.
If Bitcoin closes the day above $80,000, attention could quickly shift to the $81,400–$82,000 region, with $84,000 emerging as the next probable upside target.
