Bitcoin 
$78,258, after experiencing drastic price swings on Wednesday, stabilized around the $86,600 mark by Thursday. During the day, the price briefly surged to $90,000, only to quickly retract, highlighting the ongoing issues of weak liquidity and macroeconomic uncertainties. Concurrently, U.S. President Donald Trump’s statement about the incoming Federal Reserve chair’s potential to significantly lower interest rates brought attention back to monetary policy expectations within the cryptocurrency market.
Bitcoin’s Brief Foray Above $90,000 and Market Catalysts
Nick Ruck, Director of LVRG Research, identifies the recent volatility in Bitcoin as stemming from a global market trend towards risk aversion, a slowdown in ETF inflows, deleveraging in derivative markets, and heightened correlation with stock markets due to monetary policy uncertainty. Ruck also noted that the year-end portfolio rebalancing has influenced the price, as fading expectations of a “Santa Claus rally” continue to dampen investor enthusiasm.
Vincent Liu, CIO of Kronos Research, suggests that the current price range of $85,000–$86,000 seems like a recalibration rather than a purely seasonal effect. According to Liu, after a strong rally, fund movements have cooled, leverage has stabilized, and the market is searching for a new driving force. The expert asserts that until fresh liquidity arrives, the market will likely experience a volatile, sideways trend as the primary scenario.
Liu further clarifies that a deeper correction does not yet indicate a “crypto winter.” He explains that as long as the price stays above what he terms the “True Market Mean” of around $81,000, a time-sensitive, challenging sideways trajectory remains prominent. If the price falls below $81,000, the risk of a decline becomes more pronounced.
New Fed Messages from Trump: “Interest Rates Will Go Even Lower”
Both analysts agree that the cryptocurrency market is entering 2026 with ongoing macroeconomic uncertainties. Despite the Federal Reserve enacting interest rate cuts in the last three FOMC meetings, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell hinted that another cut might not occur in January. The CME Group’s FedWatch tool indicates a 73.4% probability of no rate cut next month, while Polymarket places this likelihood at 76%. Currently, the target interest rate range in the U.S. stands between 3.50% and 3.75%.
In a statement on Wednesday, reported by Reuters, Trump mentioned that after Powell’s departure in May, the new Fed chair would likely advocate significantly lower interest rates. Trump, who has previously expressed a desire for the benchmark rate in the U.S. to drop to 1% or lower, also announced plans to introduce his nominee for the new chair “by the beginning of the new year.”
On the same day, Trump met with Christopher Waller, a Fed member known for his favorable stance towards cryptocurrencies. Among the five potential candidates, former Fed member Kevin Warsh and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett are considered prominent contenders for the position.
