On Tuesday, Bitcoin traded around $68,780, drawing attention as interest in U.S. spot Bitcoin ETFs accelerated. Notably, on April 6, recorded net inflows into these ETFs reached $471 million—the highest single-day figure since late February. While this marks the sixth largest daily increase this year, it still falls short of the surges of over $700 million seen during certain days in January.
Impact of ETF inflows on Bitcoin price
Recently, substantial sales by large investors and tepid demand in spot markets have left Bitcoin trading just below the $70,000 mark. However, strong capital inflows into ETF products are helping to offset this selling pressure, playing a critical role in maintaining price stability. Industry observers note that the growing share of institutional investments—rather than individual participation—has become a decisive factor driving current price movements.
The demand generated by ETFs has positioned them as a key marginal buyer in the market, prompting more responsive price shifts compared to conventional financial assets. As ETF inflows continue, they help absorb market supply and provide ongoing support for Bitcoin prices.
Changing relationship with macroeconomic signals and monetary policy
In the short term, global macroeconomic indicators are not providing clear direction for Bitcoin’s price trajectory. The U.S. Federal Reserve is not expected to alter interest rates at its April meeting, and market expectations for any near-term rate hikes or cuts remain low.
Yet, a recent report from Binance Research suggests that Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global monetary policy is undergoing a notable shift. The study found that, as of 2024, Bitcoin’s correlation with the Global Easing Breadth index—which tracks easing moves by 41 central banks—has turned sharply negative. Researchers highlighted that this inverse correlation, in the year that saw spot ETFs approved in the U.S., has nearly tripled compared to previous periods.
Historically, Bitcoin tended to reflect global easing measures with some lag, but since ETFs entered the picture, price changes in Bitcoin appear to be occurring ahead of those in traditional markets. This evolution suggests that institutional flows linked to ETFs now exert a greater influence in setting marginal prices, overtaking the role previously played by individual investors.
Binance Research commented that, “Compared to previous years, Bitcoin has shifted from responding reluctantly to macro developments to being able to price them in advance.”
Continued inflows to ETFs are thus supporting current demand and price stability in Bitcoin. As long as this trend persists, analysts point to a divergence in Bitcoin’s behavior compared to established market norms.
