Ki Young Ju, one of the most prominent on-chain experts worldwide and CEO of CryptoQuant, once predicted the end of the bull market by analyzing metrics and later apologized for his mistake. Initially, his experience instilled fear among crypto enthusiasts when he announced the end of the cycle. Eventually, Ju conceded that he was mistaken, but now he asserts that the crypto cycle has indeed ended. But what was the underlying reason behind the death of the cryptocurrency cycle theory?
Understanding the Cryptocurrency Cycle
Bitcoin 
$76,467 historically follows a four-year cycle, influencing the rest of the cryptocurrencies. These cycles, which revolve around halving events, foretold peak periods like 2017 and 2021 and hint at an upcoming rise in 2025. However, today, Bitcoin has evolved into a widely accepted asset, akin to gold or silver.
As Bitcoin has grown, classical interpretations of the cryptocurrency cycle theory have faded. According to on-chain analyst Ki Young Ju, the Bitcoin cycle theory is obsolete.
“Bitcoin cycle theory is dead.
My predictions were based on the model: buy when whales accumulate, sell when retail investors join. But this model is outdated. In the recent cycle, whales sold to retail investors. Now, old whales are selling to new long-term whales. Institutional adoption is more significant than anticipated. Trading seems pointless. The number of whales surpasses investors. I made a mistake ignoring this shift in my ‘end of the bull cycle’ call. I sincerely apologize if my prediction impacted your investments. I’ll focus more on data-driven insights.”
When Young Ju suggested the end of the bull cycle, it was noted that institutional investors and the ETF channel were rewriting the narrative. It turns out he was right to later acknowledge this transformation. The understanding that something longstanding and accurate has changed took time for Young Ju to accept.
The Dawn of the Bear Market
Curious about how bear markets will start? Unless crypto initiates an unparalleled multi-year cycle saga, bear markets will be triggered when major players like MSTR or similar investors start locking in BTC profits.
One morning, we might wake up to MSTR or IBIT customers, along with other significant investors, conducting mass profit sales. This could trigger a widespread panic, causing MSTR shares to plummet unless they instigate the sale. Michael Saylor might be compelled to act, possibly announcing it’s time to sell, which could lead to an unprecedented crash.
While this scenario might trigger tales of Bitcoin’s demise, a pivotal question arises: how will enough buyers materialize given the transparency of on-chain selling movements? They might craft a new narrative, realizing BTC gains incrementally over months.
However, noting the level of institutional BTC reserves, these extreme scenarios might not materialize immediately. Nonetheless, a new bullish narrative might emerge—a frenzy to invest in BTC mining hardware to dominate mining power and spur employment, potentially garnering government support.
It’s vital to recognize we are amidst the hype of the reserve narrative, poised for a peak. Currently, as the hype endures, the economic wheel spins. The stream flows (BTC price rises), and the mill turns (investors buy shares in companies as BTC values increase, generating cash to purchase more BTC and continue driving up prices).
In the interim, as this article was prepared, Galaxy completed the sale of whale BTC holdings from 2011. The total amounted to 80,000 BTC, contributing another factor for a potential rise. BTC has once again climbed to $116,800.
