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One of the most noteworthy developments in the cryptocurrency market recently has been the potential impacts of the sharp decline in the US Dollar Index. Economist Tomas highlighted on platform X how the 3.93% decrease in the dollar index during the first quarter has drawn risk assets into a strong rally three months later. Bitcoin (BTC) 
$103,110, influenced by this dynamic, surpassed the $100,000 milestone within the month. If past correlations repeat, Bitcoin’s price could climb to a range of $150,000 to $200,000 over the summer without surprise.
Weakening Dollar Index and Bitcoin Price Dynamics
According to Tomas’s compilations, the US Dollar Index, which was at 108.512 points at the start of the year, dropped to 100.424 by March. Particularly in April, the near 4.36% decline acted as a macro catalyst boosting risk appetite. Historically, when the dollar weakens, a noticeable buying pressure is seen in both the cryptocurrency market and stock markets.
In this context, Bitcoin showed a volatile trend in the first week of May, gaining over 10% between 1–5 May. The one-day surge of 6.46% on 8 May, according to Tomas, was a clear indication of the three-month delayed rally signal. Hence, the weakening dollar index has become a fundamental factor directly fueling Bitcoin’s price momentum.
Bitcoin’s $150,000 – $200,000 Expectation
According to the economist’s projection, with the three-month delay rule applied, it is likely for Bitcoin to rise to $150,000 – $200,000 during the July-August period. In this scenario, the 10.2% surge at the end of May is just a precursor to a significant rally on the horizon. While stocks might exhibit a similar reaction, the impacts on indices like the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100, which decreased by about 5%, aren’t as pronounced as Bitcoin’s response.
Meanwhile, gold continues to exhibit a positive correlation with the dollar in this cycle. Gold prices, which rose 19.16% in the first quarter, might have already factored in the dollar’s weakening. Tomas warns that a potential recovery in the dollar could lead to selling pressure on gold and a loss of momentum for Bitcoin.
