The November 2024 elections are approaching, and the timing is extremely remarkable. The last quarter generally means an uptrend for crypto. Reflecting the historical performance of September, hopes for a rebound in October are growing. Moreover, in the last quarter of the year, the FTX exchange will strengthen market liquidity with cash returns. So how does BTC perform in US elections?
Bitcoin Performance in US Elections
It is important to be familiar with the movements caused by major upcoming events in the past. For example, we have mentioned many times over the past year that the Fed’s policy changes have caused short or medium-term declines in risk markets. The first cut will be in September, and cryptocurrencies are falling along with stocks.
Halving was mentioned as a factor that would push BTC price to a new ATH level. With the excitement of the BTC ETF, BTC broke all-time records even before the halving occurred. Moreover, when this expectation was shared, BTC was at $28,000. It increased by more than $45,000. Gains in altcoins (at least in some) exceeded 5 times.
Now, the biggest upcoming event is the US Presidential Elections, which, according to historical performance, should cause a rise in BTC price for one reason or another. In the graph below, we see that BTC price reached all-time high levels after the previous 2 elections.
<img class="size-full wp-image-386921 aligncenter" src="https://coin-turk.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/09/ABD-Secimlerine-Gore-Bitcoin 
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BTC is still near the previous ATH level, similar to $20,000 in the previous cycle. In other words, it has not yet seen its own cycle peak. This suggests that with increasing optimism in October-November, BTC price could reach six-figure levels by mid-next year.
US Labor Reports
According to the report released on Thursday, employment in the US has significantly weakened. Last month, we saw how the historical downward revision of labor data pushed the Fed to use clearer language about rate cuts. Powell said in his Jackson Hole speech that rate cuts are coming.
Labor markets are weakening, posing a short-term threat to risk markets, especially due to its negative impact on tech companies. Indeed, one of the fundamental reasons for the recent negativity in the market is this. The Kobeissi Letter shared the following graph about an hour ago and wrote:
“According to the Challenger Report released on Thursday, layoffs in US companies increased by 193% in August to 75,891, compared to 25,885 layoffs announced in July.
This increase was driven by tech firms, which announced 39,563 layoffs, the highest number in the last 20 months, accounting for ~52% of all layoffs. Tech companies announced 5.5 TIMES more layoffs compared to the previous month. Additionally, the education sector announced 25,396 layoffs in 2024, a 222% increase compared to 2023. More evidence of a weakening labor market.”
