Ki Young Ju, founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, recently admitted to an error in his earlier prediction about the end of Bitcoin’s cycle theory. In April, Ju warned that the bull cycle was over when Bitcoin 
$62,774 was valued at $80,000 and expressed concerns over pressure obstructing further growth. Contrary to his forecast, Bitcoin broke records in July, reaching $123,236. Ju, addressing his followers, apologized for his miscalculation and promised to provide data-driven insights moving forward.
Apology Following Incorrect Prediction
In his April 4 prediction, Ju viewed that even massive acquisitions by Strategy couldn’t elevate prices, interpreting it as a signal of a bear market. He believed markets had reached a phase insensitive to new capital, predicting no significant short-term rise.
Reality, however, did not align with Ju’s expectations. By mid-May, Bitcoin’s price climbed over $112,000, reaching an all-time high by July. Investors adhering to Ju’s projections missed out on potential gains of around 54%. Today, Ju revises his stance, stating “Trading is now meaningless. The number of investors has surpassed traders.”
In a social media message, Ju expressed remorse if his forecast negatively affected investment decisions, pledging to rely more on data-based analyses in the future.
New Justifications for the End of Cycle Theory
According to Ju, the classical bull cycle, where whales sell after accumulating and individual interest peaks, is now outdated. Whales now transfer their coins to institutional investors creating treasury reserves, thereby smoothing price fluctuations and making upward trends more sustainable. Meanwhile, Jurrien Timmer from Fidelity recently asserted the four-year cycle still holds notable accuracy, presenting a counter argument.
Despite this, Ju insists that high-demand crypto reserve strategies have fundamentally altered the market, making predictions based on old models risky. He suggests that companies’ aggressive acquisitions will support prices in the long term, advising to focus on tracking in-chain fund flows instead of technical indicators.
