As Bitcoin 
$77,710 consolidates at the $110,000 level, technical indicators suggest the asset may be nearing the end of its current bull cycle. Analyzing past market patterns, similarities emerge that highlight potential critical phases ahead.
Approaching the Bull Cycle’s End?
According to renowned analyst TradingShot, Bitcoin, the flagship cryptocurrency, is likely to approach a market peak by the end of 2025. This peak is expected to be succeeded by a significant market correction extending into 2026. The analyst notes in a TradingView post dated September 5 that historical data reveals a recurring market rhythm, characterized by peaks, bear market phases, and cycle troughs. Notably, each “supercycle” tends to reach its peak near the 0.786 Fibonacci time extension before transitioning into an extended decline.
Based on current cycle measurements, the next significant peak could occur in the week of October 13, 2025. This timing aligns with previous cycles that peaked shortly before transitioning into bear market phases.
The analysis also suggests that the bear phase might commence after December 1, 2025, upon reaching the 0.786 Fibonacci mark. If the cyclical symmetry continues, the bear market could extend to the projected supercycle bottom on October 5, 2026. At this point, historical patterns suggest that cycle troughs have provided optimal entry points for the next major rally, highlighting potential long-term buying opportunities.
Critical Price Levels for Bitcoin
Conversely, on-chain data shared by Ali Martinez underscores key metrics to assess the health of Bitcoin’s current bull market. Historically, downtrends begin when prices fall below the “Realized Price of Short-Term Holders,” whereas deeper retracements occur when prices descend below the “Realized Price of Long-Term Holders.” These levels represent the average cost for recent buyers and long-term investors.
According to Glassnode data as of September 6, 2025, the “Realized Price of Short-Term Holders” stands at $109,400, while the “Realized Price of Long-Term Holders” is $36,700. As Bitcoin trades just below record highs, $109,400 emerges as a crucial support level to monitor, while $36,700 remains a deeper structural base historically aligned with cycle bottoms.
Bitcoin Price Analysis
At the time of writing, Bitcoin was trading at $110,774, experiencing a 1.7% drop over the past 24 hours, yet maintaining a 1.5% weekly increase. To gain confidence in the sustainability of the rally in the coming weeks, Bitcoin must maintain the critical support level of $110,000.
