The early months of 2026 have been tumultuous for Bitcoin (BTC) as global media buzzes with “collapse” scenarios. However, Bernstein, a significant research entity in the investment world, offers a contrary perspective to this grim outlook. According to the company’s analysts, Bitcoin may hit a new all-time high, reaching $150,000 before the end of 2026. This bold prediction has rekindled heated discussions in the markets.
Institutional Interest and Political Winds Favoring Bitcoin
Bernstein’s projection of a $150,000 target is underpinned by strengthening structural and political support for Bitcoin. The report highlights that institutional actors, such as banks, large funds, and investment firms, are increasingly integrating BTC into their portfolios, marking a clear departure from previous cycles. This trend suggests that Bitcoin is now seen as a permanent instrument in the financial system, rather than just a speculative asset.
Moreover, the regulatory environment in the United States is noted to be experiencing one of its most favorable periods for digital assets. Contrary to the “war against crypto” rhetoric frequently voiced during the Biden era, the Donald Trump administration is described as adopting a more lenient stance. However, this support has not been universally well-received. While Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse welcomed the new regulations, Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong and Cardano’s founder Charles Hoskinson openly opposed certain provisions.
Bernstein also points out that, unlike previous major downturns, there have not been significant bankruptcies or scandals that would severely impact the market. Also, potential structural risks like quantum computers remain a concern for the distant future.
Bearish Scenarios and Conflicting Predictions
Not everyone shares Bernstein’s optimism. On-chain analyst Ali Martinez suggests Bitcoin could fall to $38,000 by October. Martinez bases this prediction on historical cycles where Bitcoin’s price moves from trough to peak and back. Renowned investor Michael Burry also briefly highlighted similarities to the 2021–2022 period, bringing the possibility of a $40,000 valuation to the table.
Conversely, some analysts, like Tom Lee from Fundstrat, argue that the current decline is temporary and this cycle differs significantly from the past. The renewed influx into spot Bitcoin ETFs in recent weeks is also considered a positive signal for the market.
Although Bitcoin has depreciated by 22% since the start of 2026, it has rebounded from approximately $60,000 to $68,000. For Bernstein’s target to materialize, a 117% increase from current prices is necessary.
