Michaël van de Poppe, a widely recognized analyst in the cryptocurrency space, points to Bitcoin’s performance against gold as a key metric in understanding broader market dynamics. While both Bitcoin and gold are often categorized as “hard assets” and frequently compared in financial circles, van de Poppe argues that tracking Bitcoin’s value relative to gold—rather than just the US dollar—offers a deeper insight into the asset’s true momentum within the ecosystem.
Historic Low in the Bitcoin-to-Gold Ratio
Van de Poppe highlights that Bitcoin’s value compared to gold has recently hit a historic low point. Contrary to the belief of some market participants who think Bitcoin entered a brief downward phase after reaching its all-time high against the dollar in October 2025, his analysis sees the situation differently.
According to van de Poppe, Bitcoin peaked against gold in December 2024 and has been declining since. If this perspective holds, the cryptocurrency may have been in a bear market relative to gold for about 14 months now.
Recurring Historical Cycles
The analyst emphasizes that previous bear markets for Bitcoin denominated in gold have also averaged roughly 14 months in duration. Notable examples include the periods from November 2013 to January 2015, December 2017 to February 2019, and April 2021 to June 2022.
Each time, the Bitcoin-to-gold ratio’s weekly Relative Strength Index (RSI) hit its lowest points, marking the bottom of the cycle, and was subsequently followed by sustained bullish trends. Based on current data, van de Poppe notes, the weekly RSI is now registering its lowest reading in history—an intriguing parallel to the troughs seen during past cycles.
Rethinking Bitcoin’s Peak Against the Dollar
Van de Poppe provides a different angle on Bitcoin’s most recent record high against the US dollar in October 2025. He suggests this milestone may not be a testament to Bitcoin’s intrinsic strength alone. Instead, he contends that simultaneous rallies in gold and silver could have contributed significantly to Bitcoin’s rise in dollar terms.
From this viewpoint, Bitcoin’s decline against gold has persisted for over a year, reflecting a shift in the underlying dynamics of market cycles within the ecosystem.
Assessing the current chart, van de Poppe finds that Bitcoin’s performance relative to gold is approaching historical lows—levels where, in previous cycles, long-term uptrends often began. He warns that expecting the ratio to fall even further would be inconsistent with historical patterns seen in earlier cycles.
In similar conditions in the past, Bitcoin at its lowest points against gold presented strategic entry opportunities. The current scenario, van de Poppe notes, could be lining up in a way similar to those previous examples.
