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Bitcoin 
$105,739 and the broader cryptocurrency market are cautiously optimistic ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting on June 18. Despite uncertainties, Bitcoin holds firm above $108,000, with a total market capitalization of $3.38 trillion. The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a nearly certain conclusion among market participants that an anticipated interest rate cut will not occur during this meeting. With employment remaining robust and inflation hovering above the Fed’s target, policymakers find themselves constrained.
Fed’s Stance on Interest Rates
The CME FedWatch Tool forecasts a 99.9% probability that interest rates will remain unchanged during the FOMC meeting, with only a 0.1% chance of a minor 25-basis-point cut. Even looking towards July, the likelihood of a rate reduction has dropped to 14.5%. Last month, prospects of a rate cut were higher, but strong employment data and persistent inflation projections have dramatically shifted investor sentiment.
Despite the European Central Bank’s (ECB) 25-basis-point cut and Donald Trump’s call for a significant 100-basis-point easing, the Federal Reserve appears set to maintain interest rates within the 425–450 basis-point range. The Fed officials are reluctant to signal easing without assessing the secondary effects of trade tariffs and price pressures on the economy thoroughly.
Meanwhile, rumors about a potential leadership change in the Fed, involving the possible appointment of Kevin Warsh, add complexity to the policy continuity under Powell’s administration. Despite increasing uncertainties, market actors retain some risk appetite, with Bitcoin gaining over 2% in the last 24 hours and gold attracting funds seeking safe havens.
Ominous Trends in Bitcoin’s Chart
Some investors are shifting from USD to crypto portfolios in search of returns, with Youhodler analyst Sergei Gorev noting this trend sustains Bitcoin’s strength. However, global interest lacks a clear direction signal, and the emergence of a “Head and Shoulders” pattern in Bitcoin’s chart warns of potential retracement to $92,000.
Market participants remain vigilant in monitoring both inflation data and the Fed’s post-meeting communications. Cryptocurrency commentators remind that the bulk of the increase is based on expectations of a rate cut. If this expectation is pushed further out, price volatility and corrections are likely.
Market Cautiously Optimistic
Even within this uncertain economic environment, some view the Federal Reserve’s decision not to ease prematurely as beneficial, anticipating “extended positive interest returns.” They forecast continuous institutional Bitcoin ETF entries. While short-term fluctuations are probable, the medium-term narrative revolves around the high-interest-high-demand dilemma.
However, policy risks are also present. Trump’s sharp critiques increase the pressure on Powell, and potential tariffs could rekindle inflation. Attention to policy shifts remains critical as macroeconomic forces play out.
