One of the most hotly debated questions in the cryptocurrency market has been whether Bitcoin’s drop to around $60,000 at the beginning of February was the ultimate bottom. Recently, several on-chain and derivatives market indicators have signaled that the worst phase of the ongoing correction may be over. Bitcoin’s price has now rebounded, surpassing the $77,000 mark as selling pressure appears to ease.
Realized Cap points to a new base
A key metric attracting attention within the Bitcoin network is the Realized Cap indicator. This measure calculates the total value of every Bitcoin based on the price at which each coin was last moved. As such, it doesn’t only reflect market prices but also embodies the collective cost basis of all investors. Historically, the Realized Cap has played a vital role in identifying market bottoms.
After Bitcoin hit record highs in October, the Realized Cap climbed to a peak near $1.12 trillion. However, due to sharp price declines, it dropped to $1.08 trillion, marking one of the steepest losses on record. Recently, however, this measure has stabilized and appears to be forming a new base—a pattern also noted during the 2022 bear market lows.
Mini glossary: Realized Cap is an alternative method for calculating the market cap of assets like Bitcoin, using the last moved price of each coin. This indicator reveals the aggregate “realized” investment value across the market and is a crucial tool for analyzing long-term market movements.
Long-term holders take the lead
Another pivotal metric, the RHODL Ratio, compares the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors (those holding for 6 months to 2 years) versus newer investors (those holding from 1 day to 3 months). The latest readings show this ratio climbing above 5—a level only reached twice before, during the deepest points of the 2015 and 2022 market cycles. This suggests that the share of coins held by long-term holders is growing significantly.
Experts emphasize that since February, the amount of Bitcoin held by long-term investors has increased by more than 400,000 coins, underscoring their continued dominance over Bitcoin’s supply.
Historical trends indicate that when long-term holders form the majority, markets frequently rebound from their lows. In short, there are signs that selling pressure in the short and medium term is waning.
Derivatives market signals a turnaround
An additional notable signal comes from funding rates in perpetual futures contracts. Between February and May, these rates were negative for some of the longest periods on record. Negative funding typically reflects bearish sentiment and an excess of short positions in the market.
In previous episodes, prolonged negative funding rates were linked to severe selling pressure, which was followed by significant inflows. Such patterns were observed after events like the Silicon Valley Bank crisis in 2023, yen-driven volatility in Japan in summer 2024, and the tariff crisis at the beginning of 2025, each corresponding with major Bitcoin bottoms.
| Indicator | March 2022 Bear Market | February 2024 Correction |
|---|---|---|
| Realized Cap Base | Stabilization started | Indicates stabilization |
| RHODL Ratio | Very high (cyclical bottom) | Above 5 (historical peak) |
| Funding Rates | Negative for extended periods | Historically low negative |
Recovery outlook gains strength
Following Bitcoin’s decline, a range of on-chain data now suggests that the selling phase is drawing to a close. In particular, the accumulation of coins by long-term holders and persistently negative sentiment in futures both point to a dwindling downward pressure on the market.
Similar market signals in past cycles often preceded strong upward movements in price. Accordingly, many analysts now assert that the likelihood of a short-term rebound in the market is on the rise.
