Bitcoin price has shown signs of recovery, moving above a key on-chain cost basis despite lingering concerns from short-term technical indicators.
Analysts assess BTC recovery and future roadmap
At the latest available data, Bitcoin is priced near $78,856, representing a daily gain of 0.53%. Trading volume stands at almost $146 billion, and the market capitalization is close to $1.59 trillion as BTC maintains its dominant position among cryptocurrencies.
Crypto analyst Ali Martinez recently highlighted Bitcoin’s return to its “warm supply realized price.” This metric tracks the average acquisition price for BTC controlled by holders who bought their coins between one week and six months ago, offering insights into the mid-term investor landscape.
Historically, recoveries above the warm supply realized price have preceded notable rebounds. For example, in January 2023, after such recovery, Bitcoin climbed 69%. A similar move in October 2023 was followed by a 159% increase. More recent recoveries in October 2024 and April 2025 corresponded with rallies of 74% and 34%, respectively.
Previous instances of Bitcoin regaining its warm supply realized price were followed by significant rallies, but there is no certainty these trends will repeat according to analysts monitoring market history.
However, analysts have stressed that past performance is not a guarantee of future gains. The technical backdrop and broader market conditions remain influential factors for upcoming moves.
Another market analyst, Klarck, has taken a more cautious long-term approach. In a recent report published via KuCoin, Klarck outlined a scenario in which Bitcoin could fall from $69,000 to a cycle bottom near $40,000 before another significant bull run emerges. His forecast sets a long-term price target of $196,000 for 2029.
Klarck also referenced his earlier projections for the 2025 cycle, anticipating the next peak between $83,000 and $60,000.
Mini dictionary: KuCoin, a global cryptocurrency exchange known for its wide range of trading pairs and active analyst community, frequently publishes market updates and research from independent traders and researchers like Klarck.
Klarck’s roadmap envisions a period of downward movement before the next major uptrend: “$69K → $40K (Cycle Bottom) → New Bull Cycle → $196K by 2029. The final flush is closer than most traders realize…”.
Technical analysis and market levels
On the technical front, Bitcoin’s price has reclaimed a position above the middle line of the Bollinger Bands, currently at $78,729. The upper band stands around $80,907, while the lower band is near $76,551. Movement above the middle band typically signals buyers may attempt to test the higher resistance level.
| Indicator | Current Level |
|---|---|
| BTC Price | $78,856 |
| Bollinger Band (Upper) | $80,907 |
| Bollinger Band (Mid) | $78,729 |
| Bollinger Band (Lower) | $76,551 |
| MACD | -452.41 |
| MACD Line | 2,676.23 |
| Signal Line | 3,128.65 |
The MACD remains in negative territory at -452.41, with its primary line at 2,676.23 below the signal line of 3,128.65, highlighting persistent bearish momentum. A bullish crossover in these indicators could shift momentum in favor of buyers.
The short-term resistance zone lies between $80,000 and $81,000. A strong breakout above this range may encourage renewed optimism and further advances, while a drop below $78,700 could test the support near the lower Bollinger Band at $76,551.
Analysts are also monitoring the $69,000 level, cited as a critical threshold for a deeper bearish phase. Holding above this level would strengthen the case for continued recovery, while a loss might indicate an extended period of correction.
Despite the latest positive move and signals of strength above key price bands, traders are watching for confirmation above $80,000 before speculating on a sustained uptrend. Previous warm supply realized price recoveries have often preceded rallies, but there is no assurance this pattern will repeat in the current cycle.
