Bitcoin continued to trade in a tight range between $78,000 and $80,000 this week, with the price hovering around $79,300 after a modest 1% decline over the past 24 hours. The leading cryptocurrency fell slightly after testing the 50-week Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $81,114 earlier in the week.
Institutional inflows strengthen, ETF demand surges
Strong appetite from institutional investors has sustained Bitcoin’s upward momentum. According to data provider SoSoValue, US spot Bitcoin Exchange-Traded Funds (ETFs) registered $1.13 billion in net inflows between Monday and Thursday, putting them on pace for a second consecutive week of billion-dollar inflows.
Persistent inflows to these funds indicate that large investors are increasing their exposure to Bitcoin. Industry analysts suggest that continued ETF demand could help the cryptocurrency clear the resistance level above $80,000 if current trends persist.
Retail demand is also contributing to market activity. Market intelligence provider CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin’s apparent spot demand is accelerating at its fastest monthly pace since December, while both spot and futures demand are increasing for the first time since October 2025.
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AAPLMini dictionary: SoSoValue, a financial data provider that tracks cryptocurrency markets, including real-time ETF flows and institutional activity in digital assets.
This uptick suggests that the latest rally is being supported by both derivatives and spot market participants. Still, analysts warn that a daily close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000 remains critical for confirming a transition into a solid bull-market phase.
Both demand and liquidity indicators have turned bullish, but Bitcoin must close above the 365-day moving average near $83,000 to confirm the shift, according to market observers.
Market eyes Fed Chair Warsh’s speech
Investors are closely monitoring Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh’s remarks at the Jackson Hole Symposium, scheduled for Friday. Many market participants believe the central bank’s stance on monetary policy will have a significant impact on Bitcoin and other risk-sensitive assets.
If Warsh signals a dovish approach or hints at future rate cuts, this could fuel risk appetite and support further upward momentum in Bitcoin. However, a hawkish message that points to restrictive monetary conditions may put downward pressure on prices across the cryptocurrency space.
Recent US macroeconomic data added further uncertainty. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported that the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation measure, held steady at 3.3% year over year in July, in line with market expectations. On a monthly basis, both headline and core PCE inflation climbed by 0.2%.
| Metric | Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| BTC Price Range (Past Week) | $78,000 – $80,000 | Sideways trading |
| 50-week SMA | $81,114 | Tested earlier in week |
| ETF Net Inflows | $1.13 billion | Monday to Thursday |
| 365-day Moving Average | ~$83,000 | Key bullish confirmation level |
| Core PCE (YoY, July) | 3.3% | Unchanged |
| CME Probability (Sept Hike) | 40% | Up from 36% pre-report |
Following the inflation report, market-implied odds of a September interest rate hike increased from 36% to 40%, according to the CME FedWatch Tool. Rising interest rates may tighten conditions for Bitcoin by making traditional yields more attractive and dampening investors’ risk appetite.
Technical outlook: Key resistance and support levels
On technical charts, the 4-hour BTC/USD chart maintains a bearish and efficient profile. Bitcoin is currently trading only slightly above $79,000 and has lost about 2% since hitting the 50-week SMA this week.
Analysts say a weekly close above the moving average could enhance the bullish outlook and drive a push toward the next major resistance at $87,599, which largely aligns with the 100-week SMA at $89,017. This sets up a critical resistance region between $87,600 and $89,000.
Despite ongoing price consolidation on the 4-hour chart, the daily and weekly timeframes suggest underlying bullish momentum. The 4-hour RSI stands at 71, indicating overbought conditions, while the weekly RSI is 58, signaling strengthening buying power.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator delivered a bullish crossover in mid-July, and growing green histogram bars suggest positive momentum is continuing. However, if Bitcoin fails to break above its moving average resistance, the price could retreat toward the psychological support level at $70,000.
If buyers fail to defend support at the 200-day EMA of $72,102, the price could test lower demand areas near the 50-day EMA at $68,713 and the 100-day EMA at $68,369.
Overall, traders remain cautious as they watch both technical signals and macroeconomic developments for the next move in Bitcoin’s price action.
