Bitcoin is trading close to $82,949, leaving the cryptocurrency about 5% below its level at the start of 2026. This has kept a key question in focus: can Bitcoin erase its year-to-date losses before December comes to an end?
Spot demand strengthens as leverage builds
According to a new report from blockchain data firm Glassnode, spot buyers have played a significant role in Bitcoin’s recent recovery toward $86,000. At the same time, both leveraged futures and options trading activity have increased, reflecting a market with rising risk appetite and greater sensitivity to leverage.
Analyst Frederik Theissen at Glassnode highlighted that exchange taker flow switched from net selling to net buying during the latest uptrend. He added that spot trading volumes also increased, and price momentum improved without showing signs of being overstretched.
This shift marks a reversal from the pattern seen earlier in September, when Bitcoin repeatedly struggled to stay above the $80,000 level. Coinpaper, a cryptocurrency market research site, noted that the resistance zone between $85,000 and $87,300 remains the primary barrier for a larger breakout.
Spot buyers have driven Bitcoin’s comeback toward $86,000, while increased trading activity and a turn in taker flow signal strength beneath the price.
Glassnode reported that futures open interest climbed above its historical high band, and funding rates rose above their normal range. This means that traders are spending more to hold leveraged long positions, which can increase overall market volatility.
Options market signals muted volatility
In the options market, Glassnode observed that open interest remained high at nearly $41 billion, yet volatility spreads dropped below the lower end of their usual range. This indicates that options traders were pricing in less price movement than the Bitcoin spot market was actually experiencing.
If this disconnect persists and volatility picks up while leverage stays elevated, Bitcoin’s move around the $87,000 level could become sharper and more unpredictable as the final quarter approaches.
U.S. spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) saw substantial inflows: $999 million on September 21, $714.7 million on September 22, $346.9 million on September 23, and $190.7 million on September 24, followed by a comparatively modest outflow of $11.8 million on September 25, according to data provided by Farside Investors.
ETF inflows reinforced the market during August 2026, with $3.52 billion added to Bitcoin funds, bringing total ETF assets near $100 billion. This sustained investor interest in Bitcoin products supports broader market recovery efforts.
For Bitcoin to post a positive return for the year, analysts said it will need to reclaim and hold the $87,500 area. Staying above the recent swing high of $87,300 would bring the price back near its 2026 opening level, while surpassing $90,000 could create a clear path to finish the year in the green.
The bullish case is improving, but mounting leverage may lead to more intense price swings than the options market currently anticipates.
Glassnode’s data suggest that, while spot and ETF demand are building a foundation for recovery, increased leverage could result in more pronounced market volatility in the coming months.
Mini dictionary: Glassnode is a blockchain analytics platform known for its detailed on-chain metrics and market insights, used by institutional and retail investors to interpret crypto market trends.
| Date | ETF Inflow/Outflow |
|---|---|
| September 21 | $999 million |
| September 22 | $714.7 million |
| September 23 | $346.9 million |
| September 24 | $190.7 million |
| September 25 | −$11.8 million |
